December 2022 Vidcast // Mercado Libre, revisited: FinTech and financing
The evolution of an exceptional platform
Professor Jacquet revisits Mercado Libre, an Argentine company headquartered in Montevideo, Uruguay, that operates online marketplaces dedicated to e-commerce and online auctions.
Its growing evolution into the practice areas of its Fintech Solutions divisions, Mercado Pago and MercadoCredito, is expected to become the company’s main source of revenue by the end of 2022.
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Hello and welcome to this vidcast which is devoted to
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Mercado Libre.
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We already discussed evolution of this company, which
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is extremely successful distributor in
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Latin America. There wasn't educational film
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in September 2021 describing opening a
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Marketplace in 1999 Payment
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Systems Pago in 2003,
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and then wallet in 2006 for operational
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reasons. Also the company became an
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extremely professional distributor Logistics mbos
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in 2013.
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The company is operating in Latin America, but predominantly in
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three countries.
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The first one is Brazil Brazil represents in
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2021, almost 4 billion dollars
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of revenues which is more than 50% of the
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total revenues of the company.
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Second to Brazil Argentina quite growing
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as well Mexico third quite
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growing. So the company's definitely growing and
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if you look at the evolution of its revenues from
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2006 to today.
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You understand that predominantly the company was
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growing smoothly up to to 2017-2018.
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And
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then it's exceptional growth exponential
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growth since 2019, 2021
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and even 22
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But what's very interesting to observe is the evolution of the portfolio
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of Commerce as opposed to fintech services?
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Obviously as it was a development in a traditional Marketplace activity,
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but it was representing 64% of total revenues
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in 2020 and it's
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down to 57% If you
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look at the last four quarters from
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Q4 2021 to Q3 2022
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in the meantime, the fintech activity
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has so much increased that it's
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now representing 43% of the total revenues as
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opposed to 36% for the same
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period
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Both businesses aren't growing but not at the same rate.
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The Commerce activity was growing traditionally at
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60 and then 80% per year.
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Now. If you look at the last four quarters,
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it's only 20% only between
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quotes obviously.
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If you compare that with the fintech activity
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fintech was growing at 50 and then
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70 and then 70 again. So
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basically fintech is getting
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closer and closer to the Commerce activity.
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Now this is about growth. But what about profitability
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interestingly the fintech gross
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margin sales Minus cost of good soul is
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greater than the Commerce gross margin.
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So as a consequence when the company was growing
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very quickly and predominantly in
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the Commerce activity. The gross margin rate
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was gradually declining from 80 to something
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like 40 to 50% Then it's
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stabilization in 2021. And
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it's up into it too because of the Improvement that
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development of the fintech activity higher growth
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rate.
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Now it's about gross. Margin. If you want to move from gross margin
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to the ebit to the operating income. You have
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to deduct the indirect call the Opex.
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R&D product development technology development
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sales and marketing and general an admin.
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Let's have a look at these three items separately.
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If you look at the evolution of
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R&D as a percentage to revenues, it's quite
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interesting to observe that it was representing something
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like 5% of revenues 2006 to
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2008. Then it gradually moved
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up to get to a peaking 2015 of
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about 12%
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The company was growing but the R&D to
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revenue ratio was growing. So R&D
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was growing at a rate, which is more than the
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sales figure.
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What's interesting to observe is then it's stabilized at
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a level of 12% and gradually went down
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not because the companies eat less
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investing in research and development, but because sales and revenues are
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skyrocketing.
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So first you invest in research and development and
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Innovation to create the product then you
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promote and you sell the product. This is
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why the sales and marketing figure when down from
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45% in 2006 down to a
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kind of stabilization at 20% And in
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2017. Once the products
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are ready. The company's very much investing
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in sales and marketing as
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a consequence the sales and marketing figure
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represented 35% to revenues
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in 2018 and 2019 and
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then went back to a kind of normal figure
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which is about 20%
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So the company's first developing the product then
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marketing the product so that
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you can generate higher revenues in the meantime General
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and admin figures where absolutely manage
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showing economies of scale gradually declining
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year after your rituals
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15% in 2006 and today's
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about six seven percent. So the company's
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generating economies of scale. The company's investing developing
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product marketing the product.
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What is a consequence in terms of revenues?
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You remember what I described in terms of evolution of
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sales in 2016. The company's generating sales of about
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1 billion in 2021. It's
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about 7 billion and growth
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will keep on in 2022.
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But if you look at the evolution of the ebit the
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operating income the operating income was about
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30 to 35% in 2010
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in 2012. Then as
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a company was not spending but investing
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a lot. He beat went down
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its stabilized at the level of 20% Then it
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went down close to zero and in 2018 and 2019.
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The company's generating operating
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losses.
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Not because the company is not doing good
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job, but simply because the company is investing.
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When investment is down in a p&l in 2020
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the EB transposit again, and
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then it goes up because then the company
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is capitalizing on the investment and generating
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economies of scale in marketing and research and development.
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It gives me the opportunity to show you again. My
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favorite Slide the one which
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I show any time. I teach it is
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the Amazon letter to shareholders dated 1997.
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The first one issued by
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the company when it was listed and basically
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it says it's all about the long
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term we invest and invest and invest maybe
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at the detriment that the expense of short-term profitability,
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but it's not important. What is absolutely key
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is to create a long-term Market leadership.
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And what's very interesting is that this later has been
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reprinted in the annual report every year since 1997,
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even though the CEO
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has changed recently changed.
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this very interesting confrontation between
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evolution of revenues and evolution
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of the current ebit as a percentage to revenues
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is confirmed if you look at the last four
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quarters
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Of course in 2020 revenue is
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up and profit is back.
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In 2021, both are up
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sales are up. And now if you
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look at the trailing 12 months, we are at
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about 10 billion dollars.
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Now as a company's generating economies a
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scale and getting the return on its investment. The return
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on sales is up again.
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So you understand that following the recommendation of
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Mr. Bezos?
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Mercado Libre is investing and investing and
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investing in order to reach long-term Market
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leadership.
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Even though this might be at the expense at
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the detriment of shorter profitability.
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Now that was the investment which you show in a p&l.
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What about the balance sheet you remember that in
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a balance sheet, you have non-current assets and
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working capital requirement, which is basically the cash
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conversion cycle in the cash conversion cycle
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you have inventories, which is about 0 for
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the company just a few handsets for points of
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sales.
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It's also accounts receivable a cast
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payable.
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What's interesting is that accounts people as always been higher
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than accounts receivable moving in parallel Direction
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up to 2017.
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In 2018 accounts receivable is significantly
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down. And again in 2019 in
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the meantime accounts payable is a little bit down.
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But if you look at the evolution of 2020 accounts payable
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and receivables are both app in 2021
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accounts receivable is up accounts
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payable is down.
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And as a consequence the working capital requirement
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the cash conversion cycle, which had always been a
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very negative figure contributing to
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the financing of the company is still negative,
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but much less negative. It's not
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minus 130 140 days
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of sales. It's minus 15.
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Now this is about Karen assets and current liabilities. What
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about fixed assets industrial investment Capital expenditures?
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If You observe the evolution of the cabinet in a long
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term you get something which is about 5% capex
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to revenues then it goes up to more than
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five five six seven and what
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is obvious is that in 2021 definitely
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there is an increase in the
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capital expenditures so the company has to invest in
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order to increase its capacity, you
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know to increase its ability to deliver services to
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its customers, it's always the same
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story
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Now if on top of that you add the fact
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that the company had to invest in the financial services
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assets.
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You observe that the company whose capital and
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plot was absolutely negligible and even negative in
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2020 turn positive in
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2021 and is now quite
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significantly positive in 2022 about
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2 billion dollars when it
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was minus 600 minus seven hundred
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million dollars in 2020
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So of course a revenues are growing but
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what is definitely a difference comparing
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today as opposed to yesterday is yesterday.
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The capital employed was negative uncontributing
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to growth financing now Capital
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employed is positive and has to
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be financed.
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It is always the same story growth consumes Financial
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Resources. The company is
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growing its capex to revenue
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figure the cash conversion cycle is less
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favorable than it was before.
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Fintag Rose, of course, you're growing
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the fintech. It's successful. It's higher growth.
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Margin you generating a return on your investment, but the
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assets which are devoted to fintech are no
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more 1.5 billion, which is what
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it was three years ago, but it's now 4.3 billion.
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It's an increase by almost 3
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billion than the question is. How do you finance grows?
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Ounce grows, you'll remember there are two ways basically debt
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and Equity inequity. You
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have profit and Equity Capital the bottom
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line is positive but far from
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contributing to the level, which is required to
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finance growth 83 million dollars in
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2021. It's far from being enough.
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This is why the company in 2021 the same
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year made an equity is you.
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But the objective of the equity issue was
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to repurchase the nodes convertible kinds
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of convertible bonds and also to contribute to
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simplifying the balance sheet preparing the balance sheet
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for its future. So it's not much cash
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coming from Equity. What about net financial debt?
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It was significantly negative to recently
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but Q3 2022 shows
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a net financial debt, which
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is positive by 300 million dollars. Of course, if
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you compare that with a market capitalization, which is
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48 billion dollars, it looks negligible, but
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you understand that the company will
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probably need some additional Equity tomorrow
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and the day after
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To issue Equity you have to look at your stock price if you
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compare the stock price of Mercado Libre with
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the NASDAQ You observe that during your
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as a masdaq was up and America dolibre was
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a little bit up.
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Then there was an interesting period from 2015 to
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2019. It was getting higher and
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higher and higher in 2020 was an explosion
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of the stock price.
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Now the company made the equity issue when the
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stock price was almost at the highest level.
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But you remember that during the last month the NASDAQ
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went down as a consequence Mercado Libre
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when done also the beta which
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represents a systematic risk, the sensitivity
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of stock market return to stock market
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index is 1.6 at Mercado
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Libre. What does it mean? It means that when the
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NASDAQ is up or down by one percent Americare on
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the average is up or down by one point six percent.
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So when NASDAQ is down Mercado Libre
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is amplifying the downside and
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lost almost 50% of its
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stock price.
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So as a company was quite opportunistic is three shares
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at 1,500 and something dollars quite
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close to the highest figures was 1,900. But
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now when the stock price is less
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than 1000 dollars if you want to issue shares, you're
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going to dilute the shareholders.
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Now as a conclusion Mercado Libre
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is an outstanding company. It's experiencing Commercial
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Success fantastic growth
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in sales. Why because the company
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understand the market market inside
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is absolutely great and because also,
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impious Logistics of the quality of execution
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we've been privileged to observe this
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very successful sequence. You'll develop
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the product R&D you Market the product sales
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and marketing then you generate skyrocketing revenues
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at firstly a bit is negative
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because you're investing then EBT is profiting from
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the increase in revenues. You generally economies
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are scale. And this is a successful sequence again.
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Now the day you want
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to go through this sequence. You have to invest if you
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want to invest you have to accept lower profits
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today to create the conditions of
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this long-term Market leadership, which was
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observed unprivileged at Amazon.
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What is interesting is that in Latin
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America? Americado Libre is a
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successful Amazon is not
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locally.
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Bad growth consumes financial resources, of
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course, it accelerates a value which
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is created by performing firm and mercado Libre
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is performing but that you consume
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Financial Resources. The question is where will
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the money come from?
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So far so good so far excellent for
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Mercado Libre, but what will be
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very interesting to observe is how the company is
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going to finance its growth tomorrow?
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Thank you very much.
Hello and welcome to this vidcast which is devoted to Mercado Libre.
We already discussed evolution of this company, which is extremely successful distributor in Latin America.
There wasn't educational film in September 2021 describing opening a Marketplace in 1999 Payment Systems Pago in 2003, and then wallet in 2006 for operational reasons.
Also the company became an extremely professional distributor Logistics mbos in 2013.
The company is operating in Latin America, but predominantly in three countries.
The first one is Brazil Brazil represents in 2021, almost 4 billion dollars of revenues which is more than 50% of the total revenues of the company.
Second to Brazil Argentina quite growing as well Mexico third quite growing.
So the company's definitely growing and if you look at the evolution of its revenues from 2006 to today.
You understand that predominantly the company was growing smoothly up to to 2017-2018.
And then it's exceptional growth exponential growth since 2019, 2021 and even 22 But what's very interesting to observe is the evolution of the portfolio of Commerce as opposed to fintech services? Obviously as it was a development in a traditional Marketplace activity, but it was representing 64% of total revenues in 2020 and it's down to 57% If you look at the last four quarters from Q4 2021 to Q3 2022 in the meantime, the fintech activity has so much increased that it's now representing 43% of the total revenues as opposed to 36% for the same period Both businesses aren't growing but not at the same rate.
The Commerce activity was growing traditionally at 60 and then 80% per year.
Now.
If you look at the last four quarters, it's only 20% only between quotes obviously.
If you compare that with the fintech activity fintech was growing at 50 and then 70 and then 70 again.
So basically fintech is getting closer and closer to the Commerce activity.
Now this is about growth.
But what about profitability interestingly the fintech gross margin sales Minus cost of good soul is greater than the Commerce gross margin.
So as a consequence when the company was growing very quickly and predominantly in the Commerce activity.
The gross margin rate was gradually declining from 80 to something like 40 to 50% Then it's stabilization in 2021.
And it's up into it too because of the Improvement that development of the fintech activity higher growth rate.
Now it's about gross.
Margin.
If you want to move from gross margin to the ebit to the operating income.
You have to deduct the indirect call the Opex.
R&D product development technology development sales and marketing and general an admin.
Let's have a look at these three items separately.
If you look at the evolution of R&D as a percentage to revenues, it's quite interesting to observe that it was representing something like 5% of revenues 2006 to 2008.
Then it gradually moved up to get to a peaking 2015 of about 12% The company was growing but the R&D to revenue ratio was growing.
So R&D was growing at a rate, which is more than the sales figure.
What's interesting to observe is then it's stabilized at a level of 12% and gradually went down not because the companies eat less investing in research and development, but because sales and revenues are skyrocketing.
So first you invest in research and development and Innovation to create the product then you promote and you sell the product.
This is why the sales and marketing figure when down from 45% in 2006 down to a kind of stabilization at 20% And in 2017.
Once the products are ready.
The company's very much investing in sales and marketing as a consequence the sales and marketing figure represented 35% to revenues in 2018 and 2019 and then went back to a kind of normal figure which is about 20% So the company's first developing the product then marketing the product so that you can generate higher revenues in the meantime General and admin figures where absolutely manage showing economies of scale gradually declining year after your rituals 15% in 2006 and today's about six seven percent.
So the company's generating economies of scale.
The company's investing developing product marketing the product.
What is a consequence in terms of revenues? You remember what I described in terms of evolution of sales in 2016.
The company's generating sales of about 1 billion in 2021.
It's about 7 billion and growth will keep on in 2022.
But if you look at the evolution of the ebit the operating income the operating income was about 30 to 35% in 2010 in 2012.
Then as a company was not spending but investing a lot.
He beat went down its stabilized at the level of 20% Then it went down close to zero and in 2018 and 2019.
The company's generating operating losses.
Not because the company is not doing good job, but simply because the company is investing.
When investment is down in a p&l in 2020 the EB transposit again, and then it goes up because then the company is capitalizing on the investment and generating economies of scale in marketing and research and development.
It gives me the opportunity to show you again.
My favorite Slide the one which I show any time.
I teach it is the Amazon letter to shareholders dated 1997.
The first one issued by the company when it was listed and basically it says it's all about the long term we invest and invest and invest maybe at the detriment that the expense of short-term profitability, but it's not important.
What is absolutely key is to create a long-term Market leadership.
And what's very interesting is that this later has been reprinted in the annual report every year since 1997, even though the CEO has changed recently changed.
this very interesting confrontation between evolution of revenues and evolution of the current ebit as a percentage to revenues is confirmed if you look at the last four quarters Of course in 2020 revenue is up and profit is back.
In 2021, both are up sales are up.
And now if you look at the trailing 12 months, we are at about 10 billion dollars.
Now as a company's generating economies a scale and getting the return on its investment.
The return on sales is up again.
So you understand that following the recommendation of Mr.
Bezos? Mercado Libre is investing and investing and investing in order to reach long-term Market leadership.
Even though this might be at the expense at the detriment of shorter profitability.
Now that was the investment which you show in a p&l.
What about the balance sheet you remember that in a balance sheet, you have non-current assets and working capital requirement, which is basically the cash conversion cycle in the cash conversion cycle you have inventories, which is about 0 for the company just a few handsets for points of sales.
It's also accounts receivable a cast payable.
What's interesting is that accounts people as always been higher than accounts receivable moving in parallel Direction up to 2017.
In 2018 accounts receivable is significantly down.
And again in 2019 in the meantime accounts payable is a little bit down.
But if you look at the evolution of 2020 accounts payable and receivables are both app in 2021 accounts receivable is up accounts payable is down.
And as a consequence the working capital requirement the cash conversion cycle, which had always been a very negative figure contributing to the financing of the company is still negative, but much less negative.
It's not minus 130 140 days of sales.
It's minus 15.
Now this is about Karen assets and current liabilities.
What about fixed assets industrial investment Capital expenditures? If You observe the evolution of the cabinet in a long term you get something which is about 5% capex to revenues then it goes up to more than five five six seven and what is obvious is that in 2021 definitely there is an increase in the capital expenditures so the company has to invest in order to increase its capacity, you know to increase its ability to deliver services to its customers, it's always the same story Now if on top of that you add the fact that the company had to invest in the financial services assets.
You observe that the company whose capital and plot was absolutely negligible and even negative in 2020 turn positive in 2021 and is now quite significantly positive in 2022 about 2 billion dollars when it was minus 600 minus seven hundred million dollars in 2020 So of course a revenues are growing but what is definitely a difference comparing today as opposed to yesterday is yesterday.
The capital employed was negative uncontributing to growth financing now Capital employed is positive and has to be financed.
It is always the same story growth consumes Financial Resources.
The company is growing its capex to revenue figure the cash conversion cycle is less favorable than it was before.
Fintag Rose, of course, you're growing the fintech.
It's successful.
It's higher growth.
Margin you generating a return on your investment, but the assets which are devoted to fintech are no more 1.5 billion, which is what it was three years ago, but it's now 4.3 billion.
It's an increase by almost 3 billion than the question is.
How do you finance grows? Ounce grows, you'll remember there are two ways basically debt and Equity inequity.
You have profit and Equity Capital the bottom line is positive but far from contributing to the level, which is required to finance growth 83 million dollars in 2021.
It's far from being enough.
This is why the company in 2021 the same year made an equity is you.
But the objective of the equity issue was to repurchase the nodes convertible kinds of convertible bonds and also to contribute to simplifying the balance sheet preparing the balance sheet for its future.
So it's not much cash coming from Equity.
What about net financial debt? It was significantly negative to recently but Q3 2022 shows a net financial debt, which is positive by 300 million dollars.
Of course, if you compare that with a market capitalization, which is 48 billion dollars, it looks negligible, but you understand that the company will probably need some additional Equity tomorrow and the day after To issue Equity you have to look at your stock price if you compare the stock price of Mercado Libre with the NASDAQ You observe that during your as a masdaq was up and America dolibre was a little bit up.
Then there was an interesting period from 2015 to 2019.
It was getting higher and higher and higher in 2020 was an explosion of the stock price.
Now the company made the equity issue when the stock price was almost at the highest level.
But you remember that during the last month the NASDAQ went down as a consequence Mercado Libre when done also the beta which represents a systematic risk, the sensitivity of stock market return to stock market index is 1.6 at Mercado Libre.
What does it mean? It means that when the NASDAQ is up or down by one percent Americare on the average is up or down by one point six percent.
So when NASDAQ is down Mercado Libre is amplifying the downside and lost almost 50% of its stock price.
So as a company was quite opportunistic is three shares at 1,500 and something dollars quite close to the highest figures was 1,900.
But now when the stock price is less than 1000 dollars if you want to issue shares, you're going to dilute the shareholders.
Now as a conclusion Mercado Libre is an outstanding company.
It's experiencing Commercial Success fantastic growth in sales.
Why because the company understand the market market inside is absolutely great and because also, impious Logistics of the quality of execution we've been privileged to observe this very successful sequence.
You'll develop the product R&D you Market the product sales and marketing then you generate skyrocketing revenues at firstly a bit is negative because you're investing then EBT is profiting from the increase in revenues.
You generally economies are scale.
And this is a successful sequence again.
Now the day you want to go through this sequence.
You have to invest if you want to invest you have to accept lower profits today to create the conditions of this long-term Market leadership, which was observed unprivileged at Amazon.
What is interesting is that in Latin America? Americado Libre is a successful Amazon is not locally.
Bad growth consumes financial resources, of course, it accelerates a value which is created by performing firm and mercado Libre is performing but that you consume Financial Resources.
The question is where will the money come from? So far so good so far excellent for Mercado Libre, but what will be very interesting to observe is how the company is going to finance its growth tomorrow? Thank you very much.