December 2024 Vidcast // Verizon: Towers VS Clients
Verizon buys Towers Communications
Professor Jacquet discusses the implications of Verizon’s acquisition of Frontier Communication and its fibre tower infrastructure.
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Hello and welcome to this Vidcast, which is devoted
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to a strategic and operational trade off in the
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telecommunication industry between towers and users.
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Quite recently, on the 4th of October
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is announced the acquisition of Frontier
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Communication by Verizon.
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Frontier Communication is a company which is very much
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involved in infrastructure business
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as fast telecommunications are concerned
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and extremely credible.
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In fiber optics.
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The deal is negotiated at an enterprise value
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of $20 billion.
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It's about 10 billion for equity
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and the remaining 10 billion for net debt.
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It's going to be a cash transaction,
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not a stock transaction.
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So Verizon is offering $38.50 per frontier
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share, which represents uh, an addition of $10
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to the last stock price, a premium
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of 30% against the last stock price.
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The price of Frontier is going to adjust to $38.50, is going
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to a little bit decline down to $34.60,
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which is its level today.
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The economic and strategic stakes are quite
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obvious for Verizon.
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There's undoubtedly a growing demand in the data business
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as far as telecommunications are concerned,
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and fiber optics represents a very
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reliable technical performance.
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It's the ideal infrastructure for the 5G
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for IAAS infrastructure as a service
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and definitely cloud, including decentralized cloud,
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the very well-known unfamous edge computing,
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which is growing at the moment.
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Last but not least, uh, the infrastructure
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represents an investment which is a long-term investment
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with stable income.
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So definitely this acquisition is absolutely in line
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with the development strategy
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and the growth ambitions of Verizon.
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After the announcement of the acquisition, Verizon presented
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to the financial analyst community
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some guidelines about its growth ambitions.
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It's about fixed wireless, it's about fiber,
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fixed wireless access target.
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We would like to double the number of subscribers by 2028,
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same 2028, including Frontier acquisition.
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We would like to reach 30 million plus passings
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for the fiber and it should reach 34
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to 40 million over time, beyond 2028.
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So very ambitious growth strategy.
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The very good news about the networks
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of these two companies is that they are very complimentary.
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Frontier is very much in the southwest of the United States,
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a little bit in the south, north, northeast,
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and Verizon East.
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So Verizon, it's about 18 million.
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Passings Frontier is about seven.
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The sum is 25 million across 31 states plus
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Washington DC Again, the objectives
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for the future is 2028, 30 million plus coming from 25 today
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and 35 to 40 million in the future.
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Now, if you look at the evolution of the stock price
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of the horizon of the last five euros, you observe
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that the stock market credibility
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of the company has been significantly eroded in a range
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of 55 to $60 per share.
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Five years ago it went down sharply
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and at the end of 2023 it reaches almost
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$30 per share.
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Now, ever since it bounced back a little bit,
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but today's stock price is about $42 quite far from 55
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to 60, it represents a drop
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of 31% in stock price.
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What about the peers? At and t?
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Same period minus 19%.
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So no good news as well,
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but as far as T-Mobile US is concerned,
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it's plus 212% for the period.
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So definitely Verizon has to make a
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positive move in the minds of the investors.
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Based on this observation, we need to make a little bit
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of financial analysis of Verizon.
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This is a large company weighs 2023 revenues
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of $134 billion.
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Now the net financial debt net
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of cash is $148 billion.
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It represents quotes only three years of EBDA
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and EBDA represents 36% of revenue.
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So the p and l looks great,
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but the capital employed is very big.
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It's a capital intensive business.
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Capital employed is $243 billion,
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so about 100 billion more than debt,
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which represents book equity.
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EBIT operating income is 28.7 billion,
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which represents 12% to capital,
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and the row say is 12%.
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Now, if the EBIT is quite high as a percentage to revenues,
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the assets turnover is on less 0.55.
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This is an extremely capital intensive business.
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In order to assess the financial performance of Verizon,
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we are going to confirm the rose
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after tax with the weighted average cost of capital.
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Before tax rose represents 12%, which
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after tax is 9.2%.
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To calculate the walk we need
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to take into account market capitalization,
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net financial debt, the cost of debt after tax,
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and the expected return equity
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in which the most important parameter is a systematic risk
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coefficient debate, which represents a sensitivity
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of your business to macroeconomic conditions.
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Econometrically the beta is about 0.42,
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which mean that the company is free cash flows
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and profitability is not that sensitive to
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what happens in the world, at least on a nasdaq.
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Now you can calculate a kind of theoretical
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no growth market book.
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What should be a price value on capital employed
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if there was no growth in the free cash flow is gross, say
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after tax divided by the wac.
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9.2 divided by 4.2 is 2.2.
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This is a theoretical market to book of the company,
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assuming that there is no growth in the free cash flow,
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the actual calculated the market
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to book enterprise value over book capital employed is only
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1.3 so much less than the theoretical market to book,
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considering that there is no gross.
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So definitely the company is suffering of
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very low credibility in the investor's mind.
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So what is needed by Verizon is of course growth,
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but beyond growth, each stock market credibility, you have
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to make the $156 billion in
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invested in the license's business plus an additional
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100 billion in the network.
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IT and network you have to make this investment profitable
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and as much profitable as possible.
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Now let's move to the target, to frontier communication
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and let's observe its financial situation.
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To make a long story short,
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the company experienced very difficult moment
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and had to put itself under the protection
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of the chapter 11th bankruptcy law in 2020.
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It went out of this difficult moment in 2021
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and since then has been generating stable revenues
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20 22, 20 23,
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about $5.8 billion of revenues.
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The operating income revenues minus operating expenses is
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half a billion $500 million.
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Now to calculate the ebitda, you start from this figure
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and you add depreciation, a ation
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and stock base compensation,
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which represents about 0.1 billion.
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You get an EBDA of $2 billion,
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$2 billion of EBDA looks great at first sight,
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especially if you compare that
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with $5.8 billion of revenues.
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But the EBDA has one aim, which is
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to find the capital expenditures the company is growing,
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is developing its network,
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and basically the CapEx figure is about $3 billion per year.
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So if you generate two and you finance
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and invest three, you understand
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that the free cash flow is going
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to be negative if the free cash flow is negative,
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the debt net of cash is up $7 billion at the end of 2022,
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which represented at that time 3.7 years of EBDA,
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but 9 billion in 20 23, 4 0.5 times the EBDA.
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This figure stabilized in September, 2024
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with 4.4 times the EBDA,
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but now that is no more nine, it is $10 billion.
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So definitely the question about Frontier is
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it cannot be sustainable in the long term to increase
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so much the net debt each and every year.
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Even though the networks
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of these two companies look quite complimentary, Verizon has
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to justify the fact that it's going
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to pay $10 more than the last stock price of Frontier.
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The company announces $500 million of synergies
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per year after three years of implementation
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for these synergies.
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Now, let's try to put a value on that.
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These $500 million are going to be an additional EBD
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for Verizon, assuming
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that the enterprise value on EBITDA remains the same.
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Nine, it's going to be an incremental value
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of nine times $500 million for Verizon, which
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represents $4.5 billion,
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spread over 245 million shares of Frontier,
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but as it's going to be potentially generated in three years
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time, this figure has to be discounted at a work
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of about 5% and again, divided by 240 million shares.
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It represents $16 per share,
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which is significantly more than the $10 per share
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paid by Verizon.
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Then it looks like quite a good deal
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for the Verizon shareholders.
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But as a consequence,
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the Frontier communication shareholders are going
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to protest at least some of them.
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Glendon Capital S.
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They're going to say, if we compare this deal
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with a zip fiber deal should be minimum $60 per share
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and certainly not 38.5.
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Now, at the end of the day, there won't be any counter offer
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and the frontier communication are going
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to approve the deal.
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The comments made by Glendon Capital on
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by SBA is justify ticking a minute
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to observe the zip fiber deal.
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The company is acquired by bc,
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which is Bell Canada's parent company, smaller deal,
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7 billion Canadian dollars, 5.1 billion US dollars
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because of uh, deferred taxes
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and the balance sheet of ZIP PLI is going to cost
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after tax 4.8 billion US dollars to BCE.
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Interestingly, Verizon was the owner of zip fiber from 2000
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to 2010, and from two 2010 to 2020 it was
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Frontier Communication the owner,
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it became an asset in Wave Division capital from 2020
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to today, 2024.
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As a consequence of the acquisition
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of the Frontier Communication Northwest Network
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as a consequence of this deal, you remember that
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frontier is very much in the southwest.
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Now, zip PLI is very much in the northwest
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of the United States
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with 1.3 million fiber passings
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and an objective of 3 million plus by the end of 28 28.
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Today it's about 325,000 fiber
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subscribers in the northwest of the United States,
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which is quite strategic for the development of BCE.
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The company generates $700 million of revenue
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and the adjusted EBDA should be about $310 million
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in 2025 expected.
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Now, there is a couple of simple calculations
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to make in order to benchmark the zip PLI
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and the Frontier Communication Acquisitions.
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As far as zip PLI is concerned,
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the acquisition price represents 14.3 times the adjusted BDA
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post synergies
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and a price of $4.8 billion
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for 325,000.
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Fiber subscribers mean that the company is paying
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$15,000 per subscriber as an acquisition cost.
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Now, if we get to a Verizon's Frontier acquisition,
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the purchase price is only 8.3 times the adjusted bid
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DA as opposed to 14.34 zip,
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and when you pay $20 billion
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for 2.2 million fiber subscribers,
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it represents an acquisition price of $9,000
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and not 15,000.
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Of course, these are a little bit simplistic calculations
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and it should be quite important
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to deep dive into the comparation between these two deals,
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but you can understand why BER
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and Glendon are a little bit upset by the price.
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Now that the implementation of the acquisitions is underway,
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the question is about its financing.
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There's always the opportunity to integrate a core asset
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divesting from a non-core asset.
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This is why Verizon is currently selling its
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telecommunication towers.
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I read a comment made by a journalist,
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which is the only surprise in the deal is that Verizon still
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owns its towers,
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and it's quite interesting to observe
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that this is probably the last telecommunication operator,
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which still owes its towers.
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All of them already sold this real estate asset.
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Let's have a look at the financial metrics of the deal.
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Verizon sells 6,339 towers
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all based in the United States.
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There is a 10 year rental contract and commitment
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because when you are a telco, you want to make sure
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that the location is available as long as needed.
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In addition, there is an option to extend this commitment
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to 50 years.
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The acquirer is vertical bridge number one
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in the United States.
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In terms of number of sites with more than 300,000 sites,
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the price paid by vertical is $3.3 billion.
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Cash out is only 2.8 billion
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because it's going to be 3.3 minus the first rent
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of $500 million.
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Now, if you divide 500 million by 6,000
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and something towers, it's about 80,000 rental
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income per tower.
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For vertical, which is quite a lot of money,
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the price is paid off
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$520,000 per tower,
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simply dividing 3.3 billion by 6,000 towers.
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Now, if you take the matrix of this business,
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the price per tower represents eight times the ebit,
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which is quite low for a nice nature like Verizon.
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The financial economics
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of this business is described in the educational film,
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which I produced in February, 2021,
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and it's very much based on American Tower.
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If you look at the enterprise value to a bid
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of American Tower, it's 22 times the A BDA,
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not eight times, so definitely it's not a very high sales
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price for the towers.
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Now, as a matter of conclusion, we have observed a set
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of deals which represent an obvious
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strategic trade off for Verizon.
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You sell non-core asset relay state assets so
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that you can find on the acquisition of
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subscribers of users.
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The reason why the company exists now, is it a bar again
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for Verizon shareholders.
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As far as the frontier communication deal is concerned,
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it looks quite okay for them.
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As far as a tower sales concerns, there's still a little bit
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of a question mark.
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Still, there is a challenge for Verizon. It's an investment.
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Now they have to turn this investment into growth
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and not growth, but credible growth for the investors,
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and it seems that really the investor's credibility
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of Verizon is at stake.
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Thank you very much.
Hello and welcome to this Vidcast, which is devoted to a strategic and operational trade off in the telecommunication industry between towers and users.
Quite recently, on the 4th of October is announced the acquisition of Frontier Communication by Verizon.
Frontier Communication is a company which is very much involved in infrastructure business as fast telecommunications are concerned and extremely credible.
In fiber optics.
The deal is negotiated at an enterprise value of $20 billion.
It's about 10 billion for equity and the remaining 10 billion for net debt.
It's going to be a cash transaction, not a stock transaction.
So Verizon is offering $38.50 per frontier share, which represents uh, an addition of $10 to the last stock price, a premium of 30% against the last stock price.
The price of Frontier is going to adjust to $38.50, is going to a little bit decline down to $34.60, which is its level today.
The economic and strategic stakes are quite obvious for Verizon.
There's undoubtedly a growing demand in the data business as far as telecommunications are concerned, and fiber optics represents a very reliable technical performance.
It's the ideal infrastructure for the 5G for IAAS infrastructure as a service and definitely cloud, including decentralized cloud, the very well-known unfamous edge computing, which is growing at the moment.
Last but not least, uh, the infrastructure represents an investment which is a long-term investment with stable income.
So definitely this acquisition is absolutely in line with the development strategy and the growth ambitions of Verizon.
After the announcement of the acquisition, Verizon presented to the financial analyst community some guidelines about its growth ambitions.
It's about fixed wireless, it's about fiber, fixed wireless access target.
We would like to double the number of subscribers by 2028, same 2028, including Frontier acquisition.
We would like to reach 30 million plus passings for the fiber and it should reach 34 to 40 million over time, beyond 2028.
So very ambitious growth strategy.
The very good news about the networks of these two companies is that they are very complimentary.
Frontier is very much in the southwest of the United States, a little bit in the south, north, northeast, and Verizon East.
So Verizon, it's about 18 million.
Passings Frontier is about seven.
The sum is 25 million across 31 states plus Washington DC Again, the objectives for the future is 2028, 30 million plus coming from 25 today and 35 to 40 million in the future.
Now, if you look at the evolution of the stock price of the horizon of the last five euros, you observe that the stock market credibility of the company has been significantly eroded in a range of 55 to $60 per share.
Five years ago it went down sharply and at the end of 2023 it reaches almost $30 per share.
Now, ever since it bounced back a little bit, but today's stock price is about $42 quite far from 55 to 60, it represents a drop of 31% in stock price.
What about the peers? At and t? Same period minus 19%.
So no good news as well, but as far as T-Mobile US is concerned, it's plus 212% for the period.
So definitely Verizon has to make a positive move in the minds of the investors.
Based on this observation, we need to make a little bit of financial analysis of Verizon.
This is a large company weighs 2023 revenues of $134 billion.
Now the net financial debt net of cash is $148 billion.
It represents quotes only three years of EBDA and EBDA represents 36% of revenue.
So the p and l looks great, but the capital employed is very big.
It's a capital intensive business.
Capital employed is $243 billion, so about 100 billion more than debt, which represents book equity.
EBIT operating income is 28.7 billion, which represents 12% to capital, and the row say is 12%.
Now, if the EBIT is quite high as a percentage to revenues, the assets turnover is on less 0.55.
This is an extremely capital intensive business.
In order to assess the financial performance of Verizon, we are going to confirm the rose after tax with the weighted average cost of capital.
Before tax rose represents 12%, which after tax is 9.2%.
To calculate the walk we need to take into account market capitalization, net financial debt, the cost of debt after tax, and the expected return equity in which the most important parameter is a systematic risk coefficient debate, which represents a sensitivity of your business to macroeconomic conditions.
Econometrically the beta is about 0.42, which mean that the company is free cash flows and profitability is not that sensitive to what happens in the world, at least on a nasdaq.
Now you can calculate a kind of theoretical no growth market book.
What should be a price value on capital employed if there was no growth in the free cash flow is gross, say after tax divided by the wac.
9.2 divided by 4.2 is 2.2.
This is a theoretical market to book of the company, assuming that there is no growth in the free cash flow, the actual calculated the market to book enterprise value over book capital employed is only 1.3 so much less than the theoretical market to book, considering that there is no gross.
So definitely the company is suffering of very low credibility in the investor's mind.
So what is needed by Verizon is of course growth, but beyond growth, each stock market credibility, you have to make the $156 billion in invested in the license's business plus an additional 100 billion in the network.
IT and network you have to make this investment profitable and as much profitable as possible.
Now let's move to the target, to frontier communication and let's observe its financial situation.
To make a long story short, the company experienced very difficult moment and had to put itself under the protection of the chapter 11th bankruptcy law in 2020.
It went out of this difficult moment in 2021 and since then has been generating stable revenues 20 22, 20 23, about $5.8 billion of revenues.
The operating income revenues minus operating expenses is half a billion $500 million.
Now to calculate the ebitda, you start from this figure and you add depreciation, a ation and stock base compensation, which represents about 0.1 billion.
You get an EBDA of $2 billion, $2 billion of EBDA looks great at first sight, especially if you compare that with $5.8 billion of revenues.
But the EBDA has one aim, which is to find the capital expenditures the company is growing, is developing its network, and basically the CapEx figure is about $3 billion per year.
So if you generate two and you finance and invest three, you understand that the free cash flow is going to be negative if the free cash flow is negative, the debt net of cash is up $7 billion at the end of 2022, which represented at that time 3.7 years of EBDA, but 9 billion in 20 23, 4 0.5 times the EBDA.
This figure stabilized in September, 2024 with 4.4 times the EBDA, but now that is no more nine, it is $10 billion.
So definitely the question about Frontier is it cannot be sustainable in the long term to increase so much the net debt each and every year.
Even though the networks of these two companies look quite complimentary, Verizon has to justify the fact that it's going to pay $10 more than the last stock price of Frontier.
The company announces $500 million of synergies per year after three years of implementation for these synergies.
Now, let's try to put a value on that.
These $500 million are going to be an additional EBD for Verizon, assuming that the enterprise value on EBITDA remains the same.
Nine, it's going to be an incremental value of nine times $500 million for Verizon, which represents $4.5 billion, spread over 245 million shares of Frontier, but as it's going to be potentially generated in three years time, this figure has to be discounted at a work of about 5% and again, divided by 240 million shares.
It represents $16 per share, which is significantly more than the $10 per share paid by Verizon.
Then it looks like quite a good deal for the Verizon shareholders.
But as a consequence, the Frontier communication shareholders are going to protest at least some of them.
Glendon Capital S.
They're going to say, if we compare this deal with a zip fiber deal should be minimum $60 per share and certainly not 38.5.
Now, at the end of the day, there won't be any counter offer and the frontier communication are going to approve the deal.
The comments made by Glendon Capital on by SBA is justify ticking a minute to observe the zip fiber deal.
The company is acquired by bc, which is Bell Canada's parent company, smaller deal, 7 billion Canadian dollars, 5.1 billion US dollars because of uh, deferred taxes and the balance sheet of ZIP PLI is going to cost after tax 4.8 billion US dollars to BCE.
Interestingly, Verizon was the owner of zip fiber from 2000 to 2010, and from two 2010 to 2020 it was Frontier Communication the owner, it became an asset in Wave Division capital from 2020 to today, 2024.
As a consequence of the acquisition of the Frontier Communication Northwest Network as a consequence of this deal, you remember that frontier is very much in the southwest.
Now, zip PLI is very much in the northwest of the United States with 1.3 million fiber passings and an objective of 3 million plus by the end of 28 28.
Today it's about 325,000 fiber subscribers in the northwest of the United States, which is quite strategic for the development of BCE.
The company generates $700 million of revenue and the adjusted EBDA should be about $310 million in 2025 expected.
Now, there is a couple of simple calculations to make in order to benchmark the zip PLI and the Frontier Communication Acquisitions.
As far as zip PLI is concerned, the acquisition price represents 14.3 times the adjusted BDA post synergies and a price of $4.8 billion for 325,000.
Fiber subscribers mean that the company is paying $15,000 per subscriber as an acquisition cost.
Now, if we get to a Verizon's Frontier acquisition, the purchase price is only 8.3 times the adjusted bid DA as opposed to 14.34 zip, and when you pay $20 billion for 2.2 million fiber subscribers, it represents an acquisition price of $9,000 and not 15,000.
Of course, these are a little bit simplistic calculations and it should be quite important to deep dive into the comparation between these two deals, but you can understand why BER and Glendon are a little bit upset by the price.
Now that the implementation of the acquisitions is underway, the question is about its financing.
There's always the opportunity to integrate a core asset divesting from a non-core asset.
This is why Verizon is currently selling its telecommunication towers.
I read a comment made by a journalist, which is the only surprise in the deal is that Verizon still owns its towers, and it's quite interesting to observe that this is probably the last telecommunication operator, which still owes its towers.
All of them already sold this real estate asset.
Let's have a look at the financial metrics of the deal.
Verizon sells 6,339 towers all based in the United States.
There is a 10 year rental contract and commitment because when you are a telco, you want to make sure that the location is available as long as needed.
In addition, there is an option to extend this commitment to 50 years.
The acquirer is vertical bridge number one in the United States.
In terms of number of sites with more than 300,000 sites, the price paid by vertical is $3.3 billion.
Cash out is only 2.8 billion because it's going to be 3.3 minus the first rent of $500 million.
Now, if you divide 500 million by 6,000 and something towers, it's about 80,000 rental income per tower.
For vertical, which is quite a lot of money, the price is paid off $520,000 per tower, simply dividing 3.3 billion by 6,000 towers.
Now, if you take the matrix of this business, the price per tower represents eight times the ebit, which is quite low for a nice nature like Verizon.
The financial economics of this business is described in the educational film, which I produced in February, 2021, and it's very much based on American Tower.
If you look at the enterprise value to a bid of American Tower, it's 22 times the A BDA, not eight times, so definitely it's not a very high sales price for the towers.
Now, as a matter of conclusion, we have observed a set of deals which represent an obvious strategic trade off for Verizon.
You sell non-core asset relay state assets so that you can find on the acquisition of subscribers of users.
The reason why the company exists now, is it a bar again for Verizon shareholders.
As far as the frontier communication deal is concerned, it looks quite okay for them.
As far as a tower sales concerns, there's still a little bit of a question mark.
Still, there is a challenge for Verizon.
It's an investment.
Now they have to turn this investment into growth and not growth, but credible growth for the investors, and it seems that really the investor's credibility of Verizon is at stake.
Thank you very much.