Telecom towers: end of a cycle?
An ever changing business model
Professor Dominique Jacquet returns to the subject of telecom towers to analyze the evolution of their profitability model.
He dives into the numbers of American Tower and observes the change in the stock market status of these operators as well as the influence it has on EBITDA and overall value.
He compares recent transactions in the area with the series of corporate headquarters sales prior to the real estate crisis of the 1990s.
This video is part of the E-Cademy’s analytical vision, offering an understanding of the financial rationality that enables companies to make strategic, value-creating moves.
WEBVTT
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Hello and welcome to this second video, which is devoted to
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telecommunication Towers.
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In February 2021. I had devoted a
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film to the worldwide and American
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leader of this industry American Tower. I
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had compared American Tower was its
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main European competitor cell next fast
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growing competitor while questioning the
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strategy of Vodafone which considered
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at that time listing. It's subsidiary Vantage.
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It's portfolio of towers, but
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keeping the control of this subsidiary.
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All these questions led to explore the
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link between the value of towers and the stock
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market status of American Tower.
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But something happened quite recently which slightly
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changed the context the financial context with
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very significant consequences on the
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value of this category of assets. It's
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the objective of this vid cast to
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explore the financial process behind that in November
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2020 when for
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the phone announces a listing of its Towers dedicated
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subsidiary Vantage Towers. The capital
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is providing some metrics so far. We home
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68,000 towers with a commitment
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for 7,100 additional Towers a bit
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Dapper Tower 10,000 Euros multiplied by
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gives you an adjustable 680 million
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euros and we anticipate that
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we are going to be able to sell the company for
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an Enterprise Value to a bit that multiple of
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25 maybe more evaluation of
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15 to 20 billion euros today the
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value of Vantage.
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On the stock market is 15 billion euros.
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In its annual report American Tower provides plenty
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of information about the business and its
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metrics American Tower is the owner
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of the Tower of the Mast and is plugging some
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broadcasting equipment, but the broadcasting equipment
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does not belong to American Tower it belongs to
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Verizon or AT&T or Deutsch Telecom or
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whatsoever.
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On an economic point of view you buy a
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piece of land or your negotiator long-term lease all
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agreement you provide some electrical and
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energy Supply equipment you build the
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Mast and then you attract one tenant. That's fine. If
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you have two tenants, basically the costs
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are a little bit the same a little bit higher but just incrementally higher
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and if you have three tendons, of course you
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incrementally did the cost but not at the same
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speed not at the same rate are the volume other revenues.
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And the company's providing the metrics imagine that
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you're in a United States you build a tower 275,000.
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The first
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tenant is going to pay 20,000. The second
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one is going to pass 30,000. The third one is
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going to pay 30,000 again. And what about the operating
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expenses 12,000 up to
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13 up to 14. So you understand that the
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return investment is going to be dramatically affected
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by the number of tenants. It's a 3%
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return investment for one tenant, which goes up to
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13 for two tenants and 24 for three
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tenants. So definitely the sensitivity is about
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the number of tenants.
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American Tower is a company which experienced huge
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growth throughout the years last year
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in 2021. Two Acquisitions were
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announced and more or less implemented. At least for one
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of it. Coresight tells us how much
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about 20 billion US dollars for growth
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International growth will discuss later
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and diversification also for data centers
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as a consequence when you observe in
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the long term the original of revenues for American Tower. It
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was close to zero in the mid 90s. It
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went closer to 1 billion
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at the end of this decade early 2000
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and then it started growing at her
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High rate from 2006 to 2007 in
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2005 revenues are
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approximately one billion and in 2021
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is the revenues exceed 9
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billion. So it's an outstanding growth.
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Now the revenue is simply the multiplication of
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the number of revenues multiplied by
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the revenues per side.
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Interestingly the number of sides is growing
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which is absolutely fundamental organic
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growth external growth. But interestingly, the
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revenues per site are declining as a consequence
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of the internationalization of the business
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as far as American Tower is concerned.
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Though when the company was predominantly North American the revenues
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per site were about 50 to 60,000
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and today it's slightly more than 40,000.
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Why because the revenue per side is
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lower outside US rather than any United
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States.
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If you look at the p&l of American Tower,
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of course, the commercial profitability is very
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high. But unfortunately the assets
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turnover is very low.
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And it is obvious When You observe the Matrix of the company 275,000
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is what you
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need to build a tower. Now. The first tenant is paying
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20,000. So the second tenant is paying $30,000.
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So if you divide the revenues by the investment,
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you understand that the assets productivity is quite low.
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In fact up to last year
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the assets don't over walls in a range between
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0.2 and 0.25. It went down in
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2021 as a consequence of Acquisitions for which
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you already have the cost of the acquisition and
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not yet the full Revenue but the return Capital
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employed is 5.3 in 2021,
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which is 33.5% of
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operating income as a percentage of Revenue multiplied
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by 0.16 of assets
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turnover now 5.3 is lower for
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accounting reasons. But if you look at
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the evolution of the return Capital at the
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beginning of the 2010
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You have 10% and 10% and 10% Then
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it goes down to eight percent but it is absolutely fixed
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and seemingly quite predictable.
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It's also interesting to observe the
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stability of the dividend yield. The company
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is a real estate investment trust consequence. No
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cooperate tax no income tax.
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But as a counterpart the obligation to
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distribute more than 95% of the
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bottom line of the net earnings.
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If you look at the evolution of the dividend per
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share, it started growing in 2012 2013 and
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then you have a continuous growth in a
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dividend.
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The dividend yield is a dividend of the year divided by
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the average stock price of the year and very interestingly.
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It's very stable at 2% Okay
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plus minus peanuts. So if
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you are an investor, you know between quotes
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that the dividend you're going to receive represents issue
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about 2% of the stock price, but this
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dividend is going to go up year after
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year as a consequence of the growth of the company.
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So a stability in the Rosie and the
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stability in the dividend year the consequence of this
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observed unperceived stability in
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the Rosé in the dividend yield is a
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change in stock market status
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of American Tower.
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The company deserves as a read as a related
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company a beta a systematic risk
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coefficient, which is 0.5 point six point
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seven point eight a bit more than 0.5 and significantly less
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than one which was what was
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happening at the end of the 2000 2010 2014
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a little bit of change because the company
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is completely correlated from the market and then
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back to the status of read share in
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2016 2017, then
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it drops and during the last three
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years. The company has a beta which
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is point one point fifteen Point eighteen, which is a
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beta for Bond.
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When you multiply a beta of 0.10.2 by
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6% the equity Market is premium on a
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New York Stock Exchange, you get to risk premium of
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0.6 to 1.2% This is
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a risk premium, not of a share but of a
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corporate bonus rating is about Triple B minus Triple
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B Triple B plus interestingly when
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the beta is down You observe
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that in the meantime the multiple Enterprise Value
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on eBay is significantly up.
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There was a huge stability starting in 2008
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to 2018. The Enterprise
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Value to a Bida is 18 18 years
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of epider for the Enterprise Value.
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Then it goes up dramatically to 25 27 28.
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And so when the company's perceived as
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a share, it's a price value to a bit
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is 18 when it is perceived at the bone.
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It is 25 to 28 19 to
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go back to the valuation of the company and to
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the variation of a tower to evaluate an
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asset. You need a kind of growth rate. It's provided by
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the company in its annual report 2021.
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An average of 3.8% organic growth
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for the company of the whole
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with different situations according to the geography 2.9
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in US and Canada 5% in
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Europe Etc. So we are going
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to use this metrics to evaluate the tower but the
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valuation depends very much on the financial status of
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the company.
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For a beta of 0.60.7. It's a
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share you are a rate for a beta of a round
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Point 15. It's a bomb Triple B minus,
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but interestingly when it is a bone,
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it means that the cost of that will exactly match with
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the cost of equity.
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Let's make a simple Financial calculation. Imagine
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a tower which generates 50,000 US
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dollars of revenues. You did a cash operating expenses
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and a little bit of Maintenance capex. How much is
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left about 35.5 thousand dollars?
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Now you make this figure grow by 3% per year
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over 25 years contracts for Towers. It's
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24 or 32 years. Now, what makes
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the difference is obviously The Wack as a
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consequence of the beta.
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When the beta is 0.15 the walk
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is 3% and the Enterprise Value
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the value of a tower represents 23 years
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of ibadan.
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Same growth rate same period but a walk
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of 5% as a consequence of a beta of 0.65 the
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value is down to 19 years of
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ebida. So you understand that this change
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in stock market status at least
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theoretically creates a value which
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is four years of Evita.
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Now, what did we observe the change
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in the status move the Enterprise Value to a
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bit from 18 to 27 and even 28
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in 2021 as an average.
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So you understand that there was a kind of overshooting the
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change in the status is justifying four
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years of a bit that not nine to
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ten years of a bit done.
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You remember at the beginning? I told you that something changed
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in the context if you
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calculate the beta not the average beta of
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the year, but the kind of moving average 36 months
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moving average beta what do you
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get roughly the same profile as before but interestingly
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during the last month there is a
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change because the beta is gradually moving up if
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you look at the last 36 months
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of correlation beta you
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get something which is 0.5. The
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previous financial status of
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American Tower walls. It's a share let's
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move down to it's a bond and it's
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gradually getting up maybe back
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to the status of share.
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Now in the theoretical point of view when you
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calculate the value of a tower.
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If you move the beta from point 18, which was its
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average in 2021 2.5 which
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is a current situation of the beta in
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May 2022. What happens to the
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Enterprise Value to a bit multiple, it
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should be down by 3.5 and then
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you go back to the graph in the long term
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Enterprise Value divided by a beta the
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history was 18. It goes
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up in 2019 to 25
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then 27 then 28 and
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in May 2022. It's down
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from 28 to 24.5. So
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you understand that the observation the reality
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the practice is from 28 to 24.5.
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Now what is proposed
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by the Siri is observed in
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reality, which is quite interesting. Now
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what will happen to the beta in the
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future? No, but he knows but today it's point.
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I've it might go up 2.6.7 or
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even point eight.
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You remember that the dividend yield dividend divided by
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stock price is too precise quite stable and fantastic compared
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with interest rates at that time long term
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government bonds 1.2. Now the long-term
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Government Bond rate is up. What's going to
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happen to the stock market status of American
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Tower tomorrow? It's going to be obviously extremely
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interesting to observe.
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But let's go back to the rationality of the telecommunication operators.
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They looked at
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their assets in their balance it and they realized
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that these assets were completely over evaluated
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for some reasons, which were probably
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not going to last long. Why did
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they do they took that as an opportunity in order
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to generate plenty of cash what I
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observe in the 90s when the industrial firms
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saw the head offices to Professionals in
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a related business is that the professionals bought
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the head offices at the price which was
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higher than the value.
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To conclude what I just described is
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absolutely consistent with the philosophy of
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this platform. You are an industrial firm.
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You need to understand the financial rationality. Then
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it will allow you
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to realize value Creation with
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strategic moves. You have
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some strategic priorities if you
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understand the value creation process behind all
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these strategic Alternatives, you will
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be able to maximize the value of the
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company, but for an industrial firm for
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its managers for the sea level, it's fundamental
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to be extremely aware of
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the financial rationality.
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Thank you very much.
Hello and welcome to this second video, which is devoted to telecommunication Towers.
In February 2021.
I had devoted a film to the worldwide and American leader of this industry American Tower.
I had compared American Tower was its main European competitor cell next fast growing competitor while questioning the strategy of Vodafone which considered at that time listing.
It's subsidiary Vantage.
It's portfolio of towers, but keeping the control of this subsidiary.
All these questions led to explore the link between the value of towers and the stock market status of American Tower.
But something happened quite recently which slightly changed the context the financial context with very significant consequences on the value of this category of assets.
It's the objective of this vid cast to explore the financial process behind that in November 2020 when for the phone announces a listing of its Towers dedicated subsidiary Vantage Towers.
The capital is providing some metrics so far.
We home 68,000 towers with a commitment for 7,100 additional Towers a bit Dapper Tower 10,000 Euros multiplied by gives you an adjustable 680 million euros and we anticipate that we are going to be able to sell the company for an Enterprise Value to a bit that multiple of 25 maybe more evaluation of 15 to 20 billion euros today the value of Vantage.
On the stock market is 15 billion euros.
In its annual report American Tower provides plenty of information about the business and its metrics American Tower is the owner of the Tower of the Mast and is plugging some broadcasting equipment, but the broadcasting equipment does not belong to American Tower it belongs to Verizon or AT&T or Deutsch Telecom or whatsoever.
On an economic point of view you buy a piece of land or your negotiator long-term lease all agreement you provide some electrical and energy Supply equipment you build the Mast and then you attract one tenant.
That's fine.
If you have two tenants, basically the costs are a little bit the same a little bit higher but just incrementally higher and if you have three tendons, of course you incrementally did the cost but not at the same speed not at the same rate are the volume other revenues.
And the company's providing the metrics imagine that you're in a United States you build a tower 275,000.
The first tenant is going to pay 20,000.
The second one is going to pass 30,000.
The third one is going to pay 30,000 again.
And what about the operating expenses 12,000 up to 13 up to 14.
So you understand that the return investment is going to be dramatically affected by the number of tenants.
It's a 3% return investment for one tenant, which goes up to 13 for two tenants and 24 for three tenants.
So definitely the sensitivity is about the number of tenants.
American Tower is a company which experienced huge growth throughout the years last year in 2021.
Two Acquisitions were announced and more or less implemented.
At least for one of it.
Coresight tells us how much about 20 billion US dollars for growth International growth will discuss later and diversification also for data centers as a consequence when you observe in the long term the original of revenues for American Tower.
It was close to zero in the mid 90s.
It went closer to 1 billion at the end of this decade early 2000 and then it started growing at her High rate from 2006 to 2007 in 2005 revenues are approximately one billion and in 2021 is the revenues exceed 9 billion.
So it's an outstanding growth.
Now the revenue is simply the multiplication of the number of revenues multiplied by the revenues per side.
Interestingly the number of sides is growing which is absolutely fundamental organic growth external growth.
But interestingly, the revenues per site are declining as a consequence of the internationalization of the business as far as American Tower is concerned.
Though when the company was predominantly North American the revenues per site were about 50 to 60,000 and today it's slightly more than 40,000.
Why because the revenue per side is lower outside US rather than any United States.
If you look at the p&l of American Tower, of course, the commercial profitability is very high.
But unfortunately the assets turnover is very low.
And it is obvious When You observe the Matrix of the company 275,000 is what you need to build a tower.
Now.
The first tenant is paying 20,000.
So the second tenant is paying $30,000.
So if you divide the revenues by the investment, you understand that the assets productivity is quite low.
In fact up to last year the assets don't over walls in a range between 0.2 and 0.25.
It went down in 2021 as a consequence of Acquisitions for which you already have the cost of the acquisition and not yet the full Revenue but the return Capital employed is 5.3 in 2021, which is 33.5% of operating income as a percentage of Revenue multiplied by 0.16 of assets turnover now 5.3 is lower for accounting reasons.
But if you look at the evolution of the return Capital at the beginning of the 2010 You have 10% and 10% and 10% Then it goes down to eight percent but it is absolutely fixed and seemingly quite predictable.
It's also interesting to observe the stability of the dividend yield.
The company is a real estate investment trust consequence.
No cooperate tax no income tax.
But as a counterpart the obligation to distribute more than 95% of the bottom line of the net earnings.
If you look at the evolution of the dividend per share, it started growing in 2012 2013 and then you have a continuous growth in a dividend.
The dividend yield is a dividend of the year divided by the average stock price of the year and very interestingly.
It's very stable at 2% Okay plus minus peanuts.
So if you are an investor, you know between quotes that the dividend you're going to receive represents issue about 2% of the stock price, but this dividend is going to go up year after year as a consequence of the growth of the company.
So a stability in the Rosie and the stability in the dividend year the consequence of this observed unperceived stability in the Rosé in the dividend yield is a change in stock market status of American Tower.
The company deserves as a read as a related company a beta a systematic risk coefficient, which is 0.5 point six point seven point eight a bit more than 0.5 and significantly less than one which was what was happening at the end of the 2000 2010 2014 a little bit of change because the company is completely correlated from the market and then back to the status of read share in 2016 2017, then it drops and during the last three years.
The company has a beta which is point one point fifteen Point eighteen, which is a beta for Bond.
When you multiply a beta of 0.10.2 by 6% the equity Market is premium on a New York Stock Exchange, you get to risk premium of 0.6 to 1.2% This is a risk premium, not of a share but of a corporate bonus rating is about Triple B minus Triple B Triple B plus interestingly when the beta is down You observe that in the meantime the multiple Enterprise Value on eBay is significantly up.
There was a huge stability starting in 2008 to 2018.
The Enterprise Value to a Bida is 18 18 years of epider for the Enterprise Value.
Then it goes up dramatically to 25 27 28.
And so when the company's perceived as a share, it's a price value to a bit is 18 when it is perceived at the bone.
It is 25 to 28 19 to go back to the valuation of the company and to the variation of a tower to evaluate an asset.
You need a kind of growth rate.
It's provided by the company in its annual report 2021.
An average of 3.8% organic growth for the company of the whole with different situations according to the geography 2.9 in US and Canada 5% in Europe Etc.
So we are going to use this metrics to evaluate the tower but the valuation depends very much on the financial status of the company.
For a beta of 0.60.7.
It's a share you are a rate for a beta of a round Point 15.
It's a bomb Triple B minus, but interestingly when it is a bone, it means that the cost of that will exactly match with the cost of equity.
Let's make a simple Financial calculation.
Imagine a tower which generates 50,000 US dollars of revenues.
You did a cash operating expenses and a little bit of Maintenance capex.
How much is left about 35.5 thousand dollars? Now you make this figure grow by 3% per year over 25 years contracts for Towers.
It's 24 or 32 years.
Now, what makes the difference is obviously The Wack as a consequence of the beta.
When the beta is 0.15 the walk is 3% and the Enterprise Value the value of a tower represents 23 years of ibadan.
Same growth rate same period but a walk of 5% as a consequence of a beta of 0.65 the value is down to 19 years of ebida.
So you understand that this change in stock market status at least theoretically creates a value which is four years of Evita.
Now, what did we observe the change in the status move the Enterprise Value to a bit from 18 to 27 and even 28 in 2021 as an average.
So you understand that there was a kind of overshooting the change in the status is justifying four years of a bit that not nine to ten years of a bit done.
You remember at the beginning? I told you that something changed in the context if you calculate the beta not the average beta of the year, but the kind of moving average 36 months moving average beta what do you get roughly the same profile as before but interestingly during the last month there is a change because the beta is gradually moving up if you look at the last 36 months of correlation beta you get something which is 0.5.
The previous financial status of American Tower walls.
It's a share let's move down to it's a bond and it's gradually getting up maybe back to the status of share.
Now in the theoretical point of view when you calculate the value of a tower.
If you move the beta from point 18, which was its average in 2021 2.5 which is a current situation of the beta in May 2022.
What happens to the Enterprise Value to a bit multiple, it should be down by 3.5 and then you go back to the graph in the long term Enterprise Value divided by a beta the history was 18.
It goes up in 2019 to 25 then 27 then 28 and in May 2022.
It's down from 28 to 24.5.
So you understand that the observation the reality the practice is from 28 to 24.5.
Now what is proposed by the Siri is observed in reality, which is quite interesting.
Now what will happen to the beta in the future? No, but he knows but today it's point.
I've it might go up 2.6.7 or even point eight.
You remember that the dividend yield dividend divided by stock price is too precise quite stable and fantastic compared with interest rates at that time long term government bonds 1.2.
Now the long-term Government Bond rate is up.
What's going to happen to the stock market status of American Tower tomorrow? It's going to be obviously extremely interesting to observe.
But let's go back to the rationality of the telecommunication operators.
They looked at their assets in their balance it and they realized that these assets were completely over evaluated for some reasons, which were probably not going to last long.
Why did they do they took that as an opportunity in order to generate plenty of cash what I observe in the 90s when the industrial firms saw the head offices to Professionals in a related business is that the professionals bought the head offices at the price which was higher than the value.
To conclude what I just described is absolutely consistent with the philosophy of this platform.
You are an industrial firm.
You need to understand the financial rationality.
Then it will allow you to realize value Creation with strategic moves.
You have some strategic priorities if you understand the value creation process behind all these strategic Alternatives, you will be able to maximize the value of the company, but for an industrial firm for its managers for the sea level, it's fundamental to be extremely aware of the financial rationality.
Thank you very much.