April 2024 Educational Film // Reddit: AMA & IPO
The tumultuous road to IPO for a controversial platform
Virtual community platform Reddit has just successfully completed its IPO, to the astonishment of many and despite much criticism.
We take a look at the work involved in cleaning up a virtual territory that was once likened to a muddy swamp, in order to make it acceptable to investors.
WEBVTT
1
00:00:07.745 --> 00:00:11.535
Hello and welcome to this film which is devoted to Reddit,
2
00:00:12.115 --> 00:00:15.335
the recent and successful IPO of Reddit,
3
00:00:15.895 --> 00:00:18.055
a quite well-known social network.
4
00:00:19.395 --> 00:00:24.375
Now, IPO, you know, a MAI will tell you in a few minutes,
5
00:00:25.355 --> 00:00:26.935
the IPO is really a success.
6
00:00:26.995 --> 00:00:30.575
It happened a few weeks ago in March, 2024.
7
00:00:31.275 --> 00:00:33.135
The range which was considered
8
00:00:33.195 --> 00:00:35.615
for the offered price was 31 to 34.
9
00:00:36.035 --> 00:00:38.735
The top of the range was selected 34,
10
00:00:38.795 --> 00:00:40.215
and it was absolutely right
11
00:00:40.215 --> 00:00:43.695
because the opening price was $47
12
00:00:44.155 --> 00:00:49.135
during the same day it went to to a high of 57.8
13
00:00:49.555 --> 00:00:52.055
and then stabilize at about $50.
14
00:00:52.225 --> 00:00:56.015
50 plus as a closing price for the first day of the listing
15
00:00:56.955 --> 00:00:58.095
is definitely a success.
16
00:00:58.095 --> 00:01:03.055
Then it stabilized to 50, went up to 70, 75, went down
17
00:01:03.055 --> 00:01:04.815
to 50 and stabilized again,
18
00:01:04.815 --> 00:01:06.975
and today it's approximately $50.
19
00:01:07.715 --> 00:01:10.815
So if you observe the evolution during these last days,
20
00:01:11.225 --> 00:01:13.815
again 50 a little bit up,
21
00:01:14.025 --> 00:01:18.575
which quite significant volume we'll get back to this point.
22
00:01:19.175 --> 00:01:24.015
Stabilization went down, down and up to 50 at $50 per share.
23
00:01:24.235 --> 00:01:28.255
The market capitalization of the company is $8 billion,
24
00:01:28.825 --> 00:01:30.415
which is quite interesting,
25
00:01:30.715 --> 00:01:34.775
but which has to be compared with their premo valuations
26
00:01:34.795 --> 00:01:39.535
of the VC round because 8 billion is a value.
27
00:01:40.025 --> 00:01:44.295
There was a brief stint at 75 which brought the value up
28
00:01:44.295 --> 00:01:45.375
to 12 billion,
29
00:01:45.995 --> 00:01:48.695
but how does it compare with the pre money valuation
30
00:01:48.695 --> 00:01:51.055
of series A, B, C, et cetera, et cetera.
31
00:01:51.895 --> 00:01:56.555
Thanks to Crunchbase, we have all the details of the years,
32
00:01:57.055 --> 00:02:01.555
the amounts and the primo valuation started as far
33
00:02:01.555 --> 00:02:04.475
as VC is concerned in 2012,
34
00:02:04.815 --> 00:02:07.635
but the first round is absolutely negligible.
35
00:02:07.975 --> 00:02:11.755
$1 million for primo valuation, which is 400,000.
36
00:02:12.375 --> 00:02:17.355
The interesting one takes place in 2014 is series B.
37
00:02:17.745 --> 00:02:21.195
$15 million are raised by the company out
38
00:02:21.195 --> 00:02:24.795
of a premium evaluation, which is 450 million.
39
00:02:25.625 --> 00:02:29.395
Imagine that 10 years ago you bought the shares.
40
00:02:29.655 --> 00:02:32.355
Now the value is almost 20 times as well.
41
00:02:32.385 --> 00:02:34.715
This is a very nice multiple,
42
00:02:35.015 --> 00:02:37.835
but when you start moving from B2C,
43
00:02:38.305 --> 00:02:41.155
then the story looks a little bit less attractive.
44
00:02:41.975 --> 00:02:46.315
In 2017, the primo valuation is 1.6 billion.
45
00:02:47.005 --> 00:02:48.675
Today the value is 8 billion,
46
00:02:48.735 --> 00:02:52.035
so it's five times it's reasonable, but it's not outstanding
47
00:02:52.575 --> 00:02:54.675
and $200 million are raised
48
00:02:55.215 --> 00:02:59.165
20 19, 2 0.7 then so, so,
49
00:02:59.705 --> 00:03:02.165
and if you look at what happened in 2021,
50
00:03:02.355 --> 00:03:06.045
it's absolutely mind blowing in February this year,
51
00:03:06.445 --> 00:03:10.445
companies raising 360 million out of a premium evaluation
52
00:03:10.445 --> 00:03:13.325
of 6 billion a few months later in August.
53
00:03:13.325 --> 00:03:18.285
Premium evaluation is no more 6 billion, but 9.6 billion.
54
00:03:19.195 --> 00:03:22.325
Then when you compare that with the market cap today,
55
00:03:22.825 --> 00:03:24.605
if the market cap is 8 billion
56
00:03:24.785 --> 00:03:26.845
and you have invested at a primo valuation,
57
00:03:26.845 --> 00:03:29.405
which was 6 billion, it's just breakeven.
58
00:03:30.105 --> 00:03:33.725
If you invested at a primo valuation, which is 9.6 billion,
59
00:03:33.915 --> 00:03:35.165
it's value destruction
60
00:03:36.265 --> 00:03:40.525
unless you saw when the market cap was about 12 billion
61
00:03:40.825 --> 00:03:42.285
during a few hours.
62
00:03:43.345 --> 00:03:44.685
That's an interesting point.
63
00:03:45.505 --> 00:03:49.605
Now why are these primo evaluation going up so dramatically?
64
00:03:49.905 --> 00:03:51.805
You? You look at the evolution of firms raised
65
00:03:51.905 --> 00:03:55.325
by the venture capital in the United States, you observed
66
00:03:55.325 --> 00:03:58.325
that there was an increase in the amounts,
67
00:03:58.385 --> 00:04:02.885
but in 2021 it's $250 billion,
68
00:04:03.055 --> 00:04:06.045
which is twice as much as the year
69
00:04:06.065 --> 00:04:09.285
before when it was 120 something.
70
00:04:09.985 --> 00:04:13.045
You understand that there is too much money when too much
71
00:04:13.125 --> 00:04:15.645
money is available, there is an increase in the prices.
72
00:04:16.035 --> 00:04:18.605
It's just a kind of inflation by the way,
73
00:04:19.145 --> 00:04:22.125
and then prices are absolutely not correlated
74
00:04:22.155 --> 00:04:25.085
with the value anymore, which is exactly what happened
75
00:04:25.085 --> 00:04:27.445
to Reddit series E and F
76
00:04:27.625 --> 00:04:29.685
and which what happened to a number
77
00:04:29.705 --> 00:04:31.165
of companies at the same time.
78
00:04:33.005 --> 00:04:35.665
Now, let's go back to the IPO on the amounts.
79
00:04:35.665 --> 00:04:38.945
The amounts which were exchanged were 715 million,
80
00:04:39.285 --> 00:04:43.385
20 million shares were offered to the public but not issued.
81
00:04:44.095 --> 00:04:46.905
Only 15.3 million shares were issued.
82
00:04:46.965 --> 00:04:50.145
So new shares, fresh cash for the company, which is going
83
00:04:50.425 --> 00:04:53.625
to collect 500 and something million dollars,
84
00:04:54.285 --> 00:04:57.425
but 6.7 million shares were held by investors
85
00:04:57.965 --> 00:05:00.385
or private, they were sold to the public.
86
00:05:00.855 --> 00:05:02.825
It's about $230 million
87
00:05:03.245 --> 00:05:06.065
but not a penny for the company as it is.
88
00:05:06.435 --> 00:05:07.905
Let's go back to Reddit
89
00:05:07.925 --> 00:05:12.105
and the story of the companies company is created in 2005.
90
00:05:12.965 --> 00:05:15.625
The company at that time is welcome
91
00:05:16.005 --> 00:05:19.505
by a very well known accelerator whose name is Y
92
00:05:19.505 --> 00:05:21.185
Combinator, co-founders.
93
00:05:21.605 --> 00:05:25.145
For them the leaders, the CEO is Steve Huffman
94
00:05:25.715 --> 00:05:27.145
today is the CEO of the company.
95
00:05:27.685 --> 00:05:31.705
But I tell you the story in between and it's a big forum.
96
00:05:32.095 --> 00:05:35.305
Anybody can give opinions about et cetera
97
00:05:35.445 --> 00:05:37.705
and people can have access to the public
98
00:05:37.765 --> 00:05:39.505
and say, ask me any question
99
00:05:39.765 --> 00:05:42.385
and this is the meaning of um, ask me any question,
100
00:05:42.565 --> 00:05:44.225
I'm available and I will give you answers.
101
00:05:45.165 --> 00:05:48.225
In 2012, the most well known
102
00:05:48.525 --> 00:05:51.025
and publicized am uh, in the story
103
00:05:51.025 --> 00:05:54.465
of Reddit is I am Barack Obama, I'm the president
104
00:05:54.465 --> 00:05:57.025
of the United States, and guys, you have 30 minutes
105
00:05:57.105 --> 00:05:58.965
to ask me any question you want.
106
00:05:59.515 --> 00:06:01.565
It's not that true that he gave all the answers,
107
00:06:01.945 --> 00:06:03.485
but basically was available
108
00:06:03.545 --> 00:06:06.925
during 30 minutes on the social network, which is
109
00:06:07.485 --> 00:06:09.685
a moment in the history of the company.
110
00:06:10.345 --> 00:06:13.245
At the very beginning, there was just one unique forum on
111
00:06:13.315 --> 00:06:15.145
community, but
112
00:06:15.395 --> 00:06:19.025
after a few years of operations, the company decided
113
00:06:19.165 --> 00:06:22.905
to offer the possibility to create sub forums,
114
00:06:23.165 --> 00:06:26.025
sub communities, which were named subreddits,
115
00:06:26.725 --> 00:06:29.385
and these subreddits were addressing any kind
116
00:06:29.385 --> 00:06:33.385
of subject you can imagine was about science, about arts,
117
00:06:33.875 --> 00:06:38.345
about capital markets among the most publicized subreddits,
118
00:06:38.435 --> 00:06:41.265
definitely there is Wall Street bets
119
00:06:41.765 --> 00:06:44.145
or slash Wall Street bets
120
00:06:44.175 --> 00:06:46.785
because it's how you name a subreddit.
121
00:06:47.805 --> 00:06:52.745
In 2021, there was a short selling moment on GameStop.
122
00:06:52.905 --> 00:06:56.465
GameStop was absolutely not a star on capital market,
123
00:06:56.965 --> 00:06:59.225
but Cyclone Research tried
124
00:06:59.225 --> 00:07:01.705
to do some short selling on GameStop.
125
00:07:02.095 --> 00:07:03.545
What does it mean short selling?
126
00:07:03.805 --> 00:07:07.665
You borrow the shares, you sell the shares, you send rumors,
127
00:07:07.925 --> 00:07:10.905
the stock price is down, you buy the shares,
128
00:07:10.905 --> 00:07:12.665
you give them back and you make a profit.
129
00:07:13.385 --> 00:07:17.865
Cyron research, you remember there is a video on ju,
130
00:07:18.245 --> 00:07:20.425
the e-commerce site in Africa.
131
00:07:21.145 --> 00:07:24.865
Cyron research did short selling on ju, so this is the job
132
00:07:24.885 --> 00:07:27.665
of this kind of people and sometimes they are
133
00:07:27.715 --> 00:07:29.025
quite irritating.
134
00:07:29.135 --> 00:07:30.665
Some people were irritated
135
00:07:30.725 --> 00:07:33.665
and then decided to counter attack
136
00:07:33.855 --> 00:07:35.625
against this short selling.
137
00:07:36.715 --> 00:07:39.115
Interestingly, the transaction volume on
138
00:07:39.115 --> 00:07:40.755
GameStop is not that big.
139
00:07:41.495 --> 00:07:43.395
So the day you want to increase the price,
140
00:07:43.415 --> 00:07:48.395
you do some massive buy and then the price is skyrocketing.
141
00:07:48.455 --> 00:07:51.355
And for the short seller it's absolutely dramatic.
142
00:07:52.025 --> 00:07:55.795
This is exactly what the community did on GameStop
143
00:07:55.975 --> 00:07:57.275
and Cyclone Research.
144
00:07:57.665 --> 00:08:00.155
Lost a lot of money with the help of
145
00:08:01.295 --> 00:08:02.635
on this slide, what do you see?
146
00:08:02.635 --> 00:08:06.915
You see the better of our slash Wall Street beds.
147
00:08:07.055 --> 00:08:10.975
You see, Sam had men, we understand why you see the bear,
148
00:08:10.975 --> 00:08:13.455
you see the bull, you see the federal reserves and so on
149
00:08:13.455 --> 00:08:16.255
and so forth, and you see the headlines of CNBC.
150
00:08:16.735 --> 00:08:18.255
GameStop jumps out their house
151
00:08:18.715 --> 00:08:22.935
as Elon Musk tweets out Reddi board, that's Highing stock
152
00:08:23.645 --> 00:08:25.945
and throughout the end of the day, El Musk said, oh yes,
153
00:08:26.165 --> 00:08:28.145
I'm going to buy stocks and so on and so forth.
154
00:08:28.565 --> 00:08:29.945
The price skyrocketed
155
00:08:29.945 --> 00:08:32.305
and Citron research lost a lot of money.
156
00:08:33.345 --> 00:08:36.675
That the kind of job you can do with uh, subreddit
157
00:08:36.675 --> 00:08:37.795
with the communities.
158
00:08:38.185 --> 00:08:42.075
Sometimes you see curious things on this uh, communities.
159
00:08:42.985 --> 00:08:45.635
Here there is a comment made by somebody,
160
00:08:45.635 --> 00:08:46.755
it was deleted later,
161
00:08:46.975 --> 00:08:51.595
but oh, I bought 27,000 shares at Seven
162
00:08:51.855 --> 00:08:55.285
Boy et cetera, so which is about $200,000
163
00:08:55.785 --> 00:09:00.045
and now the market value of my holding is 5.9 million.
164
00:09:00.585 --> 00:09:03.965
So I made a 5.7 million capital gain,
165
00:09:04.175 --> 00:09:05.765
which is absolutely great.
166
00:09:05.835 --> 00:09:09.245
This is my, whilst this is my money, okay,
167
00:09:09.705 --> 00:09:13.165
but when you divide $5.7 million
168
00:09:13.425 --> 00:09:18.165
by 27,000 shares, you get 200 something dollars per share
169
00:09:18.625 --> 00:09:22.445
and the highest price for GameStop was about 87.
170
00:09:23.025 --> 00:09:26.725
So this is just bluff, this is fake news, this is b******t.
171
00:09:26.795 --> 00:09:29.885
This is what you can find sometimes on social networks.
172
00:09:30.815 --> 00:09:33.205
Let's go back a minute on Wall Street Bet
173
00:09:33.425 --> 00:09:35.485
who created Wall Street bets.
174
00:09:35.565 --> 00:09:36.645
A gentleman whose name is Mr.
175
00:09:37.165 --> 00:09:41.165
Ro Kozinski and he said, I created, I'm the owner read.
176
00:09:41.165 --> 00:09:42.525
He said, no, you are not the owner.
177
00:09:42.745 --> 00:09:45.645
He said, I'm the owner because I created as I created,
178
00:09:45.925 --> 00:09:48.005
I want to get the intellectual property out of that.
179
00:09:48.475 --> 00:09:51.565
Then they started fighting Rozin KY
180
00:09:51.635 --> 00:09:52.965
brought Reddi to the court.
181
00:09:53.015 --> 00:09:55.085
Reddi brought Rosinski to the court.
182
00:09:55.085 --> 00:09:57.845
It was about one year ago and we'll see what's moving on.
183
00:09:58.385 --> 00:10:01.285
But that's quite interesting to observe this kind
184
00:10:01.285 --> 00:10:02.965
of behavior on social networks.
185
00:10:03.345 --> 00:10:05.085
The company is created in 2005
186
00:10:05.385 --> 00:10:08.525
and it's going to be acquired by the New House family
187
00:10:09.315 --> 00:10:12.805
Advance Magazine publishers in 2006.
188
00:10:13.745 --> 00:10:16.405
The New House family holds a number
189
00:10:16.625 --> 00:10:18.325
of quite interesting companies
190
00:10:18.325 --> 00:10:20.885
and sub holdings including Conde Nast,
191
00:10:21.025 --> 00:10:22.645
the company which was created by Mr.
192
00:10:22.935 --> 00:10:27.205
Conde Nast, in which you have plenty of fantastic titles.
193
00:10:27.885 --> 00:10:32.645
Vogue and our Win tour is uh, artistic director of Vogue
194
00:10:32.785 --> 00:10:34.005
and of Conde Nast
195
00:10:34.025 --> 00:10:36.685
and if you remember a very well known film,
196
00:10:36.825 --> 00:10:39.125
you understand the relationship with Prada.
197
00:10:39.585 --> 00:10:40.805
How much did they pay for?
198
00:10:40.805 --> 00:10:42.285
Already about $10 million,
199
00:10:42.905 --> 00:10:46.645
but in 2011 they decided to spin off
200
00:10:47.145 --> 00:10:50.765
to allow the company to move to be a little bit more free
201
00:10:51.305 --> 00:10:55.135
and to develop, but they kept the number of shares
202
00:10:55.355 --> 00:10:59.735
and the company the family stayed owes 30% of the shares,
203
00:10:59.735 --> 00:11:01.615
30% multiplied by 8 billion.
204
00:11:01.965 --> 00:11:05.855
It's about $2.4 billion out of an investment
205
00:11:06.075 --> 00:11:07.415
of $10 million.
206
00:11:07.485 --> 00:11:09.935
It's a very decent return investment.
207
00:11:10.345 --> 00:11:14.375
Maybe you remember that Steve Jobs bought a 51%
208
00:11:14.835 --> 00:11:18.255
of the shares held by George Lucas in a promising company,
209
00:11:18.255 --> 00:11:22.095
which was renamed Pixar at Pixar, was sold to Disney
210
00:11:22.315 --> 00:11:26.095
for 4.5, 4.6 uh billion dollars
211
00:11:26.475 --> 00:11:29.335
and Steve Jobs still had 51% of the share.
212
00:11:29.525 --> 00:11:31.695
It's about the same kind of return investment,
213
00:11:31.785 --> 00:11:33.095
which is quite okay.
214
00:11:33.945 --> 00:11:36.855
Let's move on with the story. Now we are no more in 2006.
215
00:11:36.855 --> 00:11:38.335
We are in 2014
216
00:11:38.475 --> 00:11:42.735
and then there is a very interesting series B fundraising.
217
00:11:43.305 --> 00:11:45.295
$50 million are going to be raised.
218
00:11:45.515 --> 00:11:49.655
The premium evaluation is 450 million.
219
00:11:50.755 --> 00:11:55.045
There are a few institutions which are going to participate,
220
00:11:55.345 --> 00:11:56.845
but they're also private people
221
00:11:57.105 --> 00:12:00.325
and the lean investor is a gentleman you all know his name
222
00:12:00.325 --> 00:12:03.805
is Sam Altman at that time he is the president of
223
00:12:04.405 --> 00:12:08.005
Y Combinator and he's going to be a member of the board
224
00:12:08.005 --> 00:12:12.805
of directors of Reddit from 2015 to 2022.
225
00:12:13.305 --> 00:12:14.685
So very recently,
226
00:12:14.785 --> 00:12:18.565
and remember the 2022, it's just so important Now
227
00:12:18.625 --> 00:12:19.885
how many shares are held
228
00:12:20.105 --> 00:12:24.365
by Sam Altman about 800,000 A shares.
229
00:12:24.755 --> 00:12:26.925
I'll discuss A versus B in a few minutes
230
00:12:27.225 --> 00:12:29.765
and 11 million of B shares.
231
00:12:30.185 --> 00:12:34.285
You multiply that by $50 and you get about $600 million.
232
00:12:34.905 --> 00:12:38.405
So it's quite an interesting return investment also for Mr.
233
00:12:38.985 --> 00:12:42.805
Lerner. Now if you want to discuss the relevance of an IPO
234
00:12:42.805 --> 00:12:45.525
of the listing of a company, you have to relate that
235
00:12:45.525 --> 00:12:47.205
with the financial metrics of the company.
236
00:12:48.105 --> 00:12:50.885
Top line revenues, turnover, okay,
237
00:12:51.265 --> 00:12:54.965
but revenues by geographical zone North America
238
00:12:54.965 --> 00:12:56.285
versus as the rest of the world.
239
00:12:56.745 --> 00:12:59.085
You transform revenues into operating profit,
240
00:12:59.355 --> 00:13:01.125
deducting the operational cost.
241
00:13:01.675 --> 00:13:04.685
Then you can discuss cash, operating costs, cash,
242
00:13:04.685 --> 00:13:06.605
operating revenues, ebitda,
243
00:13:07.105 --> 00:13:10.445
and when you deduct capital expenditures you get the free
244
00:13:10.515 --> 00:13:13.525
cash flow, which is supposedly the value of the company.
245
00:13:14.275 --> 00:13:15.485
What about the top line?
246
00:13:16.135 --> 00:13:19.445
There are 100,000 plus active
247
00:13:20.095 --> 00:13:21.685
subreddits communities.
248
00:13:22.225 --> 00:13:26.285
How many people are visiting the communities on the average
249
00:13:26.865 --> 00:13:30.245
on a regular basis it's about 73 million people.
250
00:13:30.345 --> 00:13:35.005
So it's quite the number of communities sharing questions
251
00:13:35.025 --> 00:13:36.965
and answers and souls
252
00:13:37.345 --> 00:13:39.365
and people visiting so
253
00:13:39.365 --> 00:13:42.285
that you can have data on how they behave.
254
00:13:43.165 --> 00:13:47.445
Interestingly, the number of active users is equally shared
255
00:13:47.755 --> 00:13:49.885
between North America and the rest of the world.
256
00:13:50.185 --> 00:13:52.925
It was a case about three years ago. It's a case today.
257
00:13:53.505 --> 00:13:55.285
In the meantime, uh, rest
258
00:13:55.285 --> 00:13:58.285
of the world was a bit more than United States and Canada
259
00:13:58.345 --> 00:14:00.045
and North America, but interestingly,
260
00:14:00.045 --> 00:14:03.605
if you look at the last quarter, there is a very significant
261
00:14:04.205 --> 00:14:07.085
increase in the number of users in North America,
262
00:14:07.335 --> 00:14:09.965
which has a huge impact on the top line
263
00:14:10.805 --> 00:14:13.615
because a number of users is going to be multiplied
264
00:14:13.635 --> 00:14:15.415
by the average revenue per user
265
00:14:16.195 --> 00:14:19.215
and if you observe what happens in United States
266
00:14:19.275 --> 00:14:21.775
and Canada as opposed to the rest of the world,
267
00:14:22.005 --> 00:14:23.495
then there's a very big difference.
268
00:14:23.715 --> 00:14:26.015
You remember Facebook, there are plenty
269
00:14:26.035 --> 00:14:27.695
of users everywhere in the world,
270
00:14:27.795 --> 00:14:31.255
but the RPU is at its maximum in North America.
271
00:14:31.725 --> 00:14:33.775
It's exactly the same case for Reddit
272
00:14:34.195 --> 00:14:36.495
and also the same cases that you have a seasonality.
273
00:14:36.795 --> 00:14:41.375
Why? Because you sell to advertising agendas
274
00:14:41.635 --> 00:14:46.335
and then Q4 is stronger than Q1, Q2 and Q3.
275
00:14:46.675 --> 00:14:50.415
You can observe this seasonality in almost all these
276
00:14:50.735 --> 00:14:52.885
companies dealing with the same activity.
277
00:14:53.305 --> 00:14:57.165
But what is quite interesting is that Q1 and two
278
00:14:57.185 --> 00:15:00.005
and three are up, but what about Q4?
279
00:15:00.755 --> 00:15:04.845
It's the same, almost the same the last three years it's
280
00:15:04.845 --> 00:15:08.725
quite stable, even a little bit declining in North America a
281
00:15:08.725 --> 00:15:11.965
little bit up in the rest of the world there's a kind
282
00:15:11.965 --> 00:15:16.045
of stability which you can observe not during the year
283
00:15:16.345 --> 00:15:18.765
but at the end of the year during the last quarter.
284
00:15:19.585 --> 00:15:21.885
And interestingly, if you look at the communication
285
00:15:21.885 --> 00:15:24.125
of the company in the IPO prospectus,
286
00:15:24.595 --> 00:15:27.525
this growth comes from the IPO prospectus.
287
00:15:27.675 --> 00:15:28.725
What do you observe?
288
00:15:29.105 --> 00:15:33.845
Global average revenue per user an increase three years ago,
289
00:15:34.265 --> 00:15:37.925
but if you look at Q4, it's quite the same Again,
290
00:15:37.995 --> 00:15:42.405
what is increasing is not Q4, it's Q1 to Q3.
291
00:15:43.355 --> 00:15:46.375
The company is disclosing the gross rate.
292
00:15:46.955 --> 00:15:50.935
Of course it's 9% Q4 23 as opposed
293
00:15:50.955 --> 00:15:52.495
to Q3 23,
294
00:15:52.835 --> 00:15:56.815
but what is relevant is not Q4 against Q3,
295
00:15:56.885 --> 00:15:59.335
it's Q4 this year against Q4.
296
00:15:59.475 --> 00:16:01.655
The year before is minus 2%.
297
00:16:02.555 --> 00:16:06.375
So where does revenue come? Where does growth is coming?
298
00:16:06.885 --> 00:16:10.135
Well, a little bit from the fact that Q1 to Q3 is up,
299
00:16:10.315 --> 00:16:12.255
but definitely is a number of users
300
00:16:12.885 --> 00:16:15.495
including especially in North America.
301
00:16:16.035 --> 00:16:17.855
If you look at the revenues per geographies,
302
00:16:17.855 --> 00:16:20.135
there is a nice increase about three years ago,
303
00:16:21.515 --> 00:16:23.735
two years ago stabilization
304
00:16:24.075 --> 00:16:26.535
and last year it's up but up.
305
00:16:26.795 --> 00:16:30.015
Why? Because of North America and North America, not
306
00:16:30.015 --> 00:16:32.775
because of the average revenue per user, but North America
307
00:16:32.775 --> 00:16:34.415
because of the number of users.
308
00:16:34.915 --> 00:16:36.895
So it's interesting to understand
309
00:16:36.895 --> 00:16:39.455
that the company is attracting more users in
310
00:16:39.455 --> 00:16:40.855
this geographical area.
311
00:16:41.715 --> 00:16:45.175
Growth is driven by the number of users
312
00:16:45.735 --> 00:16:47.095
NZO period.
313
00:16:48.355 --> 00:16:52.295
Now interestingly, the company is disclosing its model,
314
00:16:52.875 --> 00:16:54.255
its growth model.
315
00:16:54.995 --> 00:16:57.935
Of course the bottom line is advertising.
316
00:16:58.485 --> 00:17:01.135
Current model is about advertising.
317
00:17:01.235 --> 00:17:03.895
We know plenty of people. You can address these communities,
318
00:17:03.915 --> 00:17:06.175
you can sell them good services or whatsoever.
319
00:17:06.235 --> 00:17:09.935
That's interesting. The top line is about user economies.
320
00:17:09.935 --> 00:17:12.815
As for the future, what is interesting is the one in between
321
00:17:13.365 --> 00:17:14.815
data licensing
322
00:17:14.845 --> 00:17:16.935
because we have access to plenty of data
323
00:17:17.125 --> 00:17:19.015
with all these people, not only
324
00:17:19.555 --> 00:17:22.575
to target the advertising campaign, so on and so forth,
325
00:17:22.635 --> 00:17:24.295
but to understand their behavior.
326
00:17:25.315 --> 00:17:29.895
And when you are in the business of developing ai,
327
00:17:30.555 --> 00:17:33.615
you can train your AI model on
328
00:17:33.685 --> 00:17:37.775
what you read in the platforms and that's very interesting
329
00:17:37.775 --> 00:17:39.375
because there are many platforms.
330
00:17:39.375 --> 00:17:42.895
So if you want to train your chat GPT, what do you do?
331
00:17:43.195 --> 00:17:46.015
You use the subreddits of the company
332
00:17:46.315 --> 00:17:47.855
and then you can train your model
333
00:17:48.235 --> 00:17:49.685
and you improve the efficiencies.
334
00:17:49.685 --> 00:17:50.805
That's a source of value.
335
00:17:50.865 --> 00:17:52.965
And of course Reddit has to make money Now
336
00:17:53.075 --> 00:17:56.205
that when you observe the cost, the operational expenses,
337
00:17:57.065 --> 00:17:58.445
you have three periods.
338
00:17:58.705 --> 00:18:01.165
The first period is traditional economies are scale,
339
00:18:01.465 --> 00:18:04.885
the company is growing, the expenses are growing,
340
00:18:05.025 --> 00:18:07.205
but not at the same rate at the revenue.
341
00:18:07.995 --> 00:18:09.725
This is economies of scale and it works.
342
00:18:09.825 --> 00:18:13.485
So as a percentage to revenues, the cost of sales, r
343
00:18:13.485 --> 00:18:15.085
and d, s and m, sales
344
00:18:15.105 --> 00:18:17.725
and marketing, general admin, they all go down.
345
00:18:18.475 --> 00:18:20.005
Then there is a period when you have
346
00:18:20.005 --> 00:18:21.125
to increase your expenses
347
00:18:21.515 --> 00:18:23.645
because you want to offer more services
348
00:18:23.645 --> 00:18:27.565
because you want to improve the quality of et cetera.
349
00:18:27.745 --> 00:18:30.885
And then, then not only revenues are increasing,
350
00:18:30.985 --> 00:18:34.125
but the costs are increasing as a percentage to revenue.
351
00:18:34.875 --> 00:18:37.085
There's a dramatic impact on the EBITDA
352
00:18:37.085 --> 00:18:38.365
as we are going to observe it.
353
00:18:38.665 --> 00:18:41.125
And if you look at the last year, the last year,
354
00:18:41.425 --> 00:18:42.485
you control the cost.
355
00:18:42.505 --> 00:18:45.485
So you'll go back to the economy, scale
356
00:18:45.705 --> 00:18:49.285
and cost as a percentage to revenues are down.
357
00:18:50.525 --> 00:18:52.405
I calculate the quarterly cost
358
00:18:52.995 --> 00:18:56.765
excluding stock base compensation because in my opinion,
359
00:18:57.105 --> 00:19:00.125
and I comment that several times on the platform,
360
00:19:00.735 --> 00:19:02.085
stock base compensation,
361
00:19:02.085 --> 00:19:04.605
which is about restricted stock units, stock options
362
00:19:04.665 --> 00:19:06.925
and so on and so forth, it's not a cost,
363
00:19:07.195 --> 00:19:08.605
it's an investment made
364
00:19:08.665 --> 00:19:11.525
by people in the companies in which they work
365
00:19:11.745 --> 00:19:13.525
and in which they have some trust.
366
00:19:14.185 --> 00:19:17.085
So of course you attract good people saying you are going
367
00:19:17.085 --> 00:19:18.725
to receive stock options R issues
368
00:19:18.725 --> 00:19:20.005
and you are going to be a rich person.
369
00:19:20.585 --> 00:19:23.005
But basically these people are for part
370
00:19:23.005 --> 00:19:24.165
of the week employees
371
00:19:24.165 --> 00:19:26.165
and for the rest of the week they are investors.
372
00:19:26.675 --> 00:19:28.365
It's not a cost, it's an investment.
373
00:19:28.715 --> 00:19:30.685
Current sequence of that if you can
374
00:19:30.705 --> 00:19:31.925
to the quarterly expenses
375
00:19:32.145 --> 00:19:34.485
and you get the stock-based compensations
376
00:19:34.705 --> 00:19:35.805
out, what do you get?
377
00:19:36.325 --> 00:19:38.605
A cost, a real operating cost
378
00:19:39.425 --> 00:19:43.205
and in the last quarter it still represents 92%.
379
00:19:43.745 --> 00:19:47.365
So excluding stock based compensation, if you make a dollar
380
00:19:47.365 --> 00:19:52.005
of revenue, you spend 92 cents, you understand
381
00:19:52.005 --> 00:19:54.045
that it's going to be quite difficult
382
00:19:54.065 --> 00:19:57.125
to be really profitable with this cost structure.
383
00:19:57.705 --> 00:20:00.165
Now of course, if you take stock-based compensation,
384
00:20:00.625 --> 00:20:03.285
it goes up to more than 100%
385
00:20:04.145 --> 00:20:06.805
In the last quarter the stock-based compensation was
386
00:20:07.085 --> 00:20:09.605
representing 27% of the cost.
387
00:20:09.605 --> 00:20:12.285
So you understand that the a b is dramatically negative
388
00:20:12.585 --> 00:20:15.805
who receive stock-based compensations, more or less r
389
00:20:15.805 --> 00:20:17.485
and d, earned general and admin.
390
00:20:18.025 --> 00:20:19.605
Why r and d? Because it's difficult
391
00:20:19.605 --> 00:20:22.405
to attract good software developers, engineers,
392
00:20:22.605 --> 00:20:23.645
researchers or whatsoever.
393
00:20:24.105 --> 00:20:27.805
And so you have to give them the ability to become rich that
394
00:20:27.805 --> 00:20:30.045
that the company is listed and general and admin.
395
00:20:30.075 --> 00:20:32.285
Well, basically it's the CEO and the CEO.
396
00:20:32.285 --> 00:20:33.925
It's a general management company
397
00:20:34.425 --> 00:20:36.525
and this is why it's uh, during the last quarter
398
00:20:36.525 --> 00:20:39.525
because this is about stock-based, compensation related
399
00:20:39.665 --> 00:20:41.005
to the IPO.
400
00:20:41.225 --> 00:20:42.685
Now, if you combine revenues
401
00:20:42.685 --> 00:20:43.725
and operating expenses,
402
00:20:44.025 --> 00:20:47.125
you exclude from the operating expenses de precision
403
00:20:47.165 --> 00:20:50.885
motorization because a non-cash item, you exclude SBC
404
00:20:50.885 --> 00:20:52.205
because it's a non-cash item.
405
00:20:52.305 --> 00:20:56.205
And because it's not an expense, you get the adjusted ebitda
406
00:20:56.465 --> 00:20:59.525
and then you can compare the adjusted EBITDA evolution
407
00:20:59.525 --> 00:21:04.125
with the revenue evolution revenues left hand scale in blue,
408
00:21:04.825 --> 00:21:08.845
80 million per quarter Q1 three years ago
409
00:21:09.385 --> 00:21:12.285
and 250 million last quarter,
410
00:21:12.885 --> 00:21:14.565
Q4 2023.
411
00:21:14.795 --> 00:21:18.045
What about the be that was about breakevens three years ago?
412
00:21:18.435 --> 00:21:20.325
Then it went dramatically down. Why?
413
00:21:20.325 --> 00:21:21.565
Because the costs went up.
414
00:21:22.615 --> 00:21:24.645
These economies of scale I may say.
415
00:21:24.985 --> 00:21:26.605
And at the end of the day, what happened?
416
00:21:26.605 --> 00:21:28.285
Economies of scale, again, this is what
417
00:21:28.285 --> 00:21:31.325
during the last quarter, it went up and up and up
418
00:21:32.025 --> 00:21:36.725
and in Q4 2023, the adjusted EBITDA is positive
419
00:21:36.905 --> 00:21:41.325
by 20 million, $20 million out of $250 million,
420
00:21:41.595 --> 00:21:43.045
it's about nine,
421
00:21:43.115 --> 00:21:46.965
nine point something percent EBITDA to revenues.
422
00:21:47.145 --> 00:21:50.645
So now for the first time over some years,
423
00:21:51.065 --> 00:21:54.005
the company is showing a positive adjusted
424
00:21:54.585 --> 00:21:56.485
EBITDA time to go public.
425
00:21:58.545 --> 00:22:00.285
Now EBITDA is potential.
426
00:22:00.475 --> 00:22:01.925
Cash is not real cash
427
00:22:01.925 --> 00:22:04.405
because you have to exclude the evolution
428
00:22:04.405 --> 00:22:06.045
of the working capital requirement,
429
00:22:06.045 --> 00:22:08.285
which is a bit negligible, but you have to exclude
430
00:22:08.465 --> 00:22:10.125
and deduct capital expenditures.
431
00:22:10.745 --> 00:22:14.805
If you take the full year, 2023, EBITDA was negative by 70,
432
00:22:15.645 --> 00:22:16.685
adjusted to SBC of course,
433
00:22:17.185 --> 00:22:20.485
and capital expenditures accounts at four 10 million each
434
00:22:20.675 --> 00:22:25.605
peanuts but minus 70 minus, instead its minus $80 million.
435
00:22:25.705 --> 00:22:28.365
The company consumed $80 million of cash,
436
00:22:29.065 --> 00:22:30.205
but that ends the year.
437
00:22:30.585 --> 00:22:33.925
The company still has $1.2 billion,
438
00:22:34.665 --> 00:22:36.325
$1.2 billion of cash.
439
00:22:36.545 --> 00:22:40.205
It is 15 years of cash consumption.
440
00:22:40.305 --> 00:22:41.765
Of cash burden, right?
441
00:22:42.265 --> 00:22:45.325
Though if you believe that the EBITDA is going
442
00:22:45.325 --> 00:22:48.205
to remain at 9% plus, if you consider
443
00:22:48.235 --> 00:22:52.045
that the average CapEx will remain at about 1%,
444
00:22:52.105 --> 00:22:55.765
the free cash flow is going to be 8% of revenues.
445
00:22:56.315 --> 00:22:58.325
Then the question is why do you go public?
446
00:22:58.395 --> 00:23:00.125
Because you have plenty of cash.
447
00:23:00.465 --> 00:23:04.405
1.2 billion, you're starting generating positive cash flow,
448
00:23:04.765 --> 00:23:05.845
positive free cash flows.
449
00:23:06.385 --> 00:23:10.005
So why do you raise an additional half billion selling
450
00:23:10.245 --> 00:23:11.285
a shares to the public?
451
00:23:12.255 --> 00:23:15.885
Maybe it's because the BD is absolutely not guaranteed
452
00:23:15.885 --> 00:23:17.965
for the future and you want to make some investment,
453
00:23:18.385 --> 00:23:20.365
but maybe also because you have to pay taxes.
454
00:23:20.505 --> 00:23:21.605
You remember that one
455
00:23:21.605 --> 00:23:23.805
of the reasons why Facebook went public is
456
00:23:23.805 --> 00:23:25.845
that Mark Zuckerberg had to pay taxes.
457
00:23:26.265 --> 00:23:29.805
You want to offer the possibility for investors to get out
458
00:23:29.825 --> 00:23:32.925
of if they want, and for those who want to stay, they have
459
00:23:32.925 --> 00:23:35.685
to calculate their old internal rate of return,
460
00:23:35.775 --> 00:23:38.165
which they have to communicate to their own investors,
461
00:23:38.465 --> 00:23:40.485
though that's quite fair to go public.
462
00:23:40.705 --> 00:23:43.845
But there are two questions which are still on the table.
463
00:23:44.555 --> 00:23:46.405
What about governance and control
464
00:23:47.145 --> 00:23:48.885
and what about the moderation
465
00:23:49.025 --> 00:23:50.965
of the content of the platform?
466
00:23:51.295 --> 00:23:52.805
Let's start with the first question.
467
00:23:53.585 --> 00:23:56.405
You remember I told you there are A shares and B shares.
468
00:23:56.815 --> 00:23:59.525
There are 37 million A shares
469
00:23:59.745 --> 00:24:03.725
and 120 million B shares.
470
00:24:04.105 --> 00:24:06.205
The difference is the number of voting rights.
471
00:24:06.505 --> 00:24:11.405
One A share one voting right one B share 10 voting rights.
472
00:24:11.405 --> 00:24:14.005
So you understand that the control is in the hands
473
00:24:14.025 --> 00:24:15.285
of the B shareholders.
474
00:24:16.025 --> 00:24:18.845
The 22 million shares which are going to be offered
475
00:24:18.845 --> 00:24:21.525
to the public are a shares.
476
00:24:22.145 --> 00:24:25.045
So we will offer to the public is the ability
477
00:24:25.145 --> 00:24:26.605
to share the value of the firm,
478
00:24:26.745 --> 00:24:30.405
but not the power, not the decisions, not the influence.
479
00:24:31.235 --> 00:24:32.565
What about Steve Hoffman?
480
00:24:32.575 --> 00:24:36.605
Steve Hoffman holds 2.3% of a shares.
481
00:24:37.155 --> 00:24:38.885
It's going to sell plenty of them by the way,
482
00:24:39.305 --> 00:24:44.125
and then 3.4% of the B shares at the end of the deck.
483
00:24:44.585 --> 00:24:48.365
He has in his hands 3.3% of the voting rights.
484
00:24:48.505 --> 00:24:52.365
But in the prospectus there is a very interesting section
485
00:24:52.375 --> 00:24:56.565
which is VOing agreement between Steve Hoffman Advance
486
00:24:57.145 --> 00:25:01.805
on 10 said, and altogether they represent 46.3%
487
00:25:01.865 --> 00:25:04.205
of the voting rights and they vote together.
488
00:25:04.385 --> 00:25:07.885
So you understand that the influence of Steve Huffman is
489
00:25:08.405 --> 00:25:09.525
absolutely fundamental
490
00:25:10.105 --> 00:25:12.725
and in the meantime he has 3% of the shares
491
00:25:13.545 --> 00:25:15.085
and it's very classic staff.
492
00:25:15.305 --> 00:25:19.325
You know in this kind of companies you have some shares
493
00:25:19.545 --> 00:25:20.725
and you have the power,
494
00:25:21.375 --> 00:25:23.245
which is a little bit curious sometimes.
495
00:25:23.945 --> 00:25:26.405
Now the second question is, in my opinion,
496
00:25:26.435 --> 00:25:28.725
much more important, it's about moderation.
497
00:25:29.675 --> 00:25:31.925
It's always a question for social networks,
498
00:25:31.925 --> 00:25:34.805
whether companies create to thousand
499
00:25:34.805 --> 00:25:37.365
and five, what is the main principle?
500
00:25:37.365 --> 00:25:38.765
Freedom of speech.
501
00:25:38.795 --> 00:25:41.725
This is the first amendment of the American constitution,
502
00:25:41.725 --> 00:25:45.365
so you have to right to express your opinion quite freely.
503
00:25:46.065 --> 00:25:47.125
Now, at the very beginning,
504
00:25:47.535 --> 00:25:51.405
there were some subreddits which were created by the company
505
00:25:51.665 --> 00:25:54.085
and no freedom to create this subreddit.
506
00:25:54.225 --> 00:25:56.285
It starts in 2008.
507
00:25:56.755 --> 00:26:00.405
Then people can start creating communities on any subject
508
00:26:00.545 --> 00:26:02.045
and they can put any content.
509
00:26:02.865 --> 00:26:04.205
Now what about moderation?
510
00:26:04.555 --> 00:26:07.765
It's self moderation, not imposed by the company.
511
00:26:08.585 --> 00:26:11.285
And moderation is realized by volunteers,
512
00:26:12.555 --> 00:26:14.295
un paid volunteers on side.
513
00:26:14.315 --> 00:26:16.895
We do that because which was et cetera, et cetera.
514
00:26:17.075 --> 00:26:19.735
So you understand that they are going to moderate
515
00:26:20.005 --> 00:26:21.215
what they want to moderate
516
00:26:22.035 --> 00:26:24.495
and then there will be a huge problem
517
00:26:25.275 --> 00:26:28.615
in family is rich in 2011
518
00:26:29.205 --> 00:26:32.255
with a sub ready whose name is jail bait, which is
519
00:26:32.765 --> 00:26:34.895
very much about pedal pornography.
520
00:26:35.675 --> 00:26:37.735
Of course the company is going to start
521
00:26:38.935 --> 00:26:42.935
reacting against this infamy, but not that much.
522
00:26:44.105 --> 00:26:47.925
In 2015 there will be the introduction of quarantine.
523
00:26:48.665 --> 00:26:52.325
So you give less access to some subreddits,
524
00:26:52.535 --> 00:26:54.565
which you believe are not that friendly.
525
00:26:55.065 --> 00:26:57.685
At the end of the day, the reputation of Reddit is
526
00:26:57.685 --> 00:27:02.405
that it's about misinformation, disinformation, incitement
527
00:27:02.465 --> 00:27:06.565
to violence, racism, drug use including
528
00:27:07.115 --> 00:27:11.805
opioids, inc, excitement to suicide harassment, disclosure
529
00:27:11.865 --> 00:27:15.845
of private information, which is absolutely a disaster
530
00:27:16.665 --> 00:27:19.765
for ethics and for the value of the company.
531
00:27:20.265 --> 00:27:21.765
Now, what will be the action
532
00:27:21.765 --> 00:27:24.205
of the CEOs in terms of moderation?
533
00:27:24.975 --> 00:27:28.725
Ishan Wong, 20 12, 20 14, nothing.
534
00:27:29.745 --> 00:27:33.885
The law is the only limit. If it's legal, it can be there.
535
00:27:34.145 --> 00:27:35.885
And you understand that the law is very much
536
00:27:35.885 --> 00:27:37.205
about the first amendment.
537
00:27:37.785 --> 00:27:39.085
So at the end of the day,
538
00:27:39.085 --> 00:27:42.285
if it's really about promoting violence, et cetera, I,
539
00:27:42.415 --> 00:27:44.125
we'll stop it, but you understand
540
00:27:44.125 --> 00:27:48.645
that the limits are quite limited, very well known person.
541
00:27:48.655 --> 00:27:51.285
Ellen Powell is going to become CEO.
542
00:27:51.335 --> 00:27:53.645
She's going to be CEO During short period of time,
543
00:27:53.645 --> 00:27:55.685
20 14, 20 15.
544
00:27:56.225 --> 00:27:59.805
At the beginning, this very well known lawyer had been hired
545
00:27:59.945 --> 00:28:03.845
for monetization, but she's going to become CEO
546
00:28:03.945 --> 00:28:07.685
and in charge of cleansing, there will be plenty
547
00:28:07.905 --> 00:28:10.005
of fight against her.
548
00:28:10.625 --> 00:28:13.365
And as a consequence of a minor incident, she's going
549
00:28:13.365 --> 00:28:15.245
to be forced to resign.
550
00:28:15.615 --> 00:28:18.245
She's going to be replaced by Steve Hoffman
551
00:28:18.995 --> 00:28:20.965
from 2015 to today.
552
00:28:21.545 --> 00:28:24.965
He was the first CEO of a company in 2005.
553
00:28:25.625 --> 00:28:28.005
Now, 10 years later, he is back to CEO
554
00:28:28.225 --> 00:28:30.645
and up to today, this is quite an interesting story
555
00:28:30.645 --> 00:28:33.285
and he's going to continue the work in terms of moderation.
556
00:28:33.745 --> 00:28:37.765
In 2020 2000 subreddits are going to be banned
557
00:28:38.145 --> 00:28:42.405
and some of them are quite famous about very famous people
558
00:28:42.585 --> 00:28:43.845
in the United States,
559
00:28:44.465 --> 00:28:48.885
but you understand that 2000 subreddits out of 100,000,
560
00:28:49.275 --> 00:28:52.485
it's negligible and with about the rest of the community,
561
00:28:52.675 --> 00:28:53.845
they're doing good job.
562
00:28:54.235 --> 00:28:56.365
They are sharing sorts questions.
563
00:28:56.795 --> 00:29:00.805
It's about sentences, it's about questions, about replies,
564
00:29:00.945 --> 00:29:05.645
and that's a fantastic source of data, source of value.
565
00:29:06.715 --> 00:29:09.645
This considerable source of value is going to be used by
566
00:29:10.585 --> 00:29:13.645
AI developers, large language models
567
00:29:13.875 --> 00:29:17.725
because it's a fantastic field for the training of the app.
568
00:29:18.675 --> 00:29:21.045
Open ai, Sam Alman.
569
00:29:21.465 --> 00:29:24.405
Sam Alman is member of the board up to 2022.
570
00:29:24.915 --> 00:29:25.925
Open AI is going
571
00:29:25.925 --> 00:29:29.845
to massively train Chad d PT using Reddit
572
00:29:30.065 --> 00:29:31.085
sub communities.
573
00:29:31.825 --> 00:29:35.205
So you understand that here you have a fantastic source
574
00:29:35.345 --> 00:29:38.325
of value and this is what they are going to do.
575
00:29:38.795 --> 00:29:42.125
They say we have to monetize the access to the platform,
576
00:29:42.225 --> 00:29:44.565
to the community and to the sub communities.
577
00:29:45.145 --> 00:29:47.325
In June, 2023, the company says,
578
00:29:47.505 --> 00:29:50.205
now the API ready API,
579
00:29:50.305 --> 00:29:52.925
the application programming interface, it's going
580
00:29:52.925 --> 00:29:54.765
to be paid now by users.
581
00:29:55.295 --> 00:29:57.645
Beforehand it was absolutely negligible.
582
00:29:57.745 --> 00:29:58.965
Now you have to pay
583
00:29:59.865 --> 00:30:02.605
and as you have to pay, some people are going to go okay
584
00:30:02.635 --> 00:30:04.445
that and there will be a strike.
585
00:30:05.055 --> 00:30:06.085
There will be a strike.
586
00:30:06.085 --> 00:30:09.805
Because of this monetization consequence
587
00:30:09.945 --> 00:30:13.125
of the moderation of the company, now you have
588
00:30:13.125 --> 00:30:18.045
to pay something like point $24 per month for 1000 requests.
589
00:30:18.505 --> 00:30:20.125
1000 request looks big.
590
00:30:20.475 --> 00:30:23.685
It's negligible because if you really want to do some job,
591
00:30:23.755 --> 00:30:26.205
it's about tens of millions of requests
592
00:30:26.585 --> 00:30:29.725
and that is going to cost you millions of dollars a year
593
00:30:30.425 --> 00:30:32.885
before it was free or almost free.
594
00:30:33.915 --> 00:30:36.685
Consequence of the strike, nothing.
595
00:30:36.905 --> 00:30:40.005
So strike stop, but consequence of the monetization.
596
00:30:40.145 --> 00:30:44.565
Google signed in February, 2024, a few weeks
597
00:30:44.625 --> 00:30:47.485
before the IPO, an agreement with Reddit.
598
00:30:47.665 --> 00:30:50.445
Google wants to have access to the sub communities
599
00:30:50.625 --> 00:30:52.405
to train Gemini.
600
00:30:52.625 --> 00:30:54.725
Gemini is a competitor of Chad GPT,
601
00:30:55.105 --> 00:30:57.765
and the cab is ready to pay $80 million.
602
00:30:57.865 --> 00:31:00.205
If you compare that with a cash amount for Google,
603
00:31:00.715 --> 00:31:03.445
it's peanuts, but for Reddit, it's not peanuts
604
00:31:03.445 --> 00:31:07.245
because $80 million, it's four times the EBDA generated
605
00:31:07.305 --> 00:31:09.645
by the CABER in Q4 2023,
606
00:31:09.825 --> 00:31:13.525
the first time it became positive in the past.
607
00:31:14.065 --> 00:31:16.965
So you understand that there is a lot of value behind that
608
00:31:17.145 --> 00:31:19.085
and that's the equity story.
609
00:31:19.905 --> 00:31:22.085
Now, we have completed the moderation.
610
00:31:22.665 --> 00:31:25.765
We have monetization, we have monetization
611
00:31:25.765 --> 00:31:27.285
because we have some gross options.
612
00:31:27.285 --> 00:31:30.285
We are going to be able to exercise, then you can go public.
613
00:31:30.585 --> 00:31:34.925
So the reason why the company made a successful IPO,
614
00:31:35.515 --> 00:31:40.445
it's because of moderation and monetization, more
615
00:31:40.445 --> 00:31:42.725
or less as a consequence of this moderation,
616
00:31:43.495 --> 00:31:44.925
which is quite interesting
617
00:31:44.925 --> 00:31:47.325
because moderation is about ethics
618
00:31:48.235 --> 00:31:51.095
and monetization is about value.
619
00:31:52.035 --> 00:31:55.575
And here you have an interesting interaction between ethics
620
00:31:56.115 --> 00:31:57.295
and value creation.
621
00:31:58.005 --> 00:32:01.055
This interaction is of course in the middle of plenty
622
00:32:01.115 --> 00:32:04.255
of debates and it's still a very open debate,
623
00:32:04.915 --> 00:32:08.215
but our ethical values creating
624
00:32:08.725 --> 00:32:11.815
financial values, this is a quite interesting
625
00:32:12.155 --> 00:32:13.495
and open question.
626
00:32:14.365 --> 00:32:15.195
Thank you very much.
Hello and welcome to this film which is devoted to Reddit, the recent and successful IPO of Reddit, a quite well-known social network.
Now, IPO, you know, a MAI will tell you in a few minutes, the IPO is really a success.
It happened a few weeks ago in March, 2024.
The range which was considered for the offered price was 31 to 34.
The top of the range was selected 34, and it was absolutely right because the opening price was $47 during the same day it went to to a high of 57.8 and then stabilize at about $50.
50 plus as a closing price for the first day of the listing is definitely a success.
Then it stabilized to 50, went up to 70, 75, went down to 50 and stabilized again, and today it's approximately $50.
So if you observe the evolution during these last days, again 50 a little bit up, which quite significant volume we'll get back to this point.
Stabilization went down, down and up to 50 at $50 per share.
The market capitalization of the company is $8 billion, which is quite interesting, but which has to be compared with their premo valuations of the VC round because 8 billion is a value.
There was a brief stint at 75 which brought the value up to 12 billion, but how does it compare with the pre money valuation of series A, B, C, et cetera, et cetera.
Thanks to Crunchbase, we have all the details of the years, the amounts and the primo valuation started as far as VC is concerned in 2012, but the first round is absolutely negligible.
$1 million for primo valuation, which is 400,000.
The interesting one takes place in 2014 is series B.
$15 million are raised by the company out of a premium evaluation, which is 450 million.
Imagine that 10 years ago you bought the shares.
Now the value is almost 20 times as well.
This is a very nice multiple, but when you start moving from B2C, then the story looks a little bit less attractive.
In 2017, the primo valuation is 1.6 billion.
Today the value is 8 billion, so it's five times it's reasonable, but it's not outstanding and $200 million are raised 20 19, 2 0.7 then so, so, and if you look at what happened in 2021, it's absolutely mind blowing in February this year, companies raising 360 million out of a premium evaluation of 6 billion a few months later in August.
Premium evaluation is no more 6 billion, but 9.6 billion.
Then when you compare that with the market cap today, if the market cap is 8 billion and you have invested at a primo valuation, which was 6 billion, it's just breakeven.
If you invested at a primo valuation, which is 9.6 billion, it's value destruction unless you saw when the market cap was about 12 billion during a few hours.
That's an interesting point.
Now why are these primo evaluation going up so dramatically? You? You look at the evolution of firms raised by the venture capital in the United States, you observed that there was an increase in the amounts, but in 2021 it's $250 billion, which is twice as much as the year before when it was 120 something.
You understand that there is too much money when too much money is available, there is an increase in the prices.
It's just a kind of inflation by the way, and then prices are absolutely not correlated with the value anymore, which is exactly what happened to Reddit series E and F and which what happened to a number of companies at the same time.
Now, let's go back to the IPO on the amounts.
The amounts which were exchanged were 715 million, 20 million shares were offered to the public but not issued.
Only 15.3 million shares were issued.
So new shares, fresh cash for the company, which is going to collect 500 and something million dollars, but 6.7 million shares were held by investors or private, they were sold to the public.
It's about $230 million but not a penny for the company as it is.
Let's go back to Reddit and the story of the companies company is created in 2005.
The company at that time is welcome by a very well known accelerator whose name is Y Combinator, co-founders.
For them the leaders, the CEO is Steve Huffman today is the CEO of the company.
But I tell you the story in between and it's a big forum.
Anybody can give opinions about et cetera and people can have access to the public and say, ask me any question and this is the meaning of um, ask me any question, I'm available and I will give you answers.
In 2012, the most well known and publicized am uh, in the story of Reddit is I am Barack Obama, I'm the president of the United States, and guys, you have 30 minutes to ask me any question you want.
It's not that true that he gave all the answers, but basically was available during 30 minutes on the social network, which is a moment in the history of the company.
At the very beginning, there was just one unique forum on community, but after a few years of operations, the company decided to offer the possibility to create sub forums, sub communities, which were named subreddits, and these subreddits were addressing any kind of subject you can imagine was about science, about arts, about capital markets among the most publicized subreddits, definitely there is Wall Street bets or slash Wall Street bets because it's how you name a subreddit.
In 2021, there was a short selling moment on GameStop.
GameStop was absolutely not a star on capital market, but Cyclone Research tried to do some short selling on GameStop.
What does it mean short selling? You borrow the shares, you sell the shares, you send rumors, the stock price is down, you buy the shares, you give them back and you make a profit.
Cyron research, you remember there is a video on ju, the e-commerce site in Africa.
Cyron research did short selling on ju, so this is the job of this kind of people and sometimes they are quite irritating.
Some people were irritated and then decided to counter attack against this short selling.
Interestingly, the transaction volume on GameStop is not that big.
So the day you want to increase the price, you do some massive buy and then the price is skyrocketing.
And for the short seller it's absolutely dramatic.
This is exactly what the community did on GameStop and Cyclone Research.
Lost a lot of money with the help of on this slide, what do you see? You see the better of our slash Wall Street beds.
You see, Sam had men, we understand why you see the bear, you see the bull, you see the federal reserves and so on and so forth, and you see the headlines of CNBC.
GameStop jumps out their house as Elon Musk tweets out Reddi board, that's Highing stock and throughout the end of the day, El Musk said, oh yes, I'm going to buy stocks and so on and so forth.
The price skyrocketed and Citron research lost a lot of money.
That the kind of job you can do with uh, subreddit with the communities.
Sometimes you see curious things on this uh, communities.
Here there is a comment made by somebody, it was deleted later, but oh, I bought 27,000 shares at Seven Boy et cetera, so which is about $200,000 and now the market value of my holding is 5.9 million.
So I made a 5.7 million capital gain, which is absolutely great.
This is my, whilst this is my money, okay, but when you divide $5.7 million by 27,000 shares, you get 200 something dollars per share and the highest price for GameStop was about 87.
So this is just bluff, this is fake news, this is b******t.
This is what you can find sometimes on social networks.
Let's go back a minute on Wall Street Bet who created Wall Street bets.
A gentleman whose name is Mr.
Ro Kozinski and he said, I created, I'm the owner read.
He said, no, you are not the owner.
He said, I'm the owner because I created as I created, I want to get the intellectual property out of that.
Then they started fighting Rozin KY brought Reddi to the court.
Reddi brought Rosinski to the court.
It was about one year ago and we'll see what's moving on.
But that's quite interesting to observe this kind of behavior on social networks.
The company is created in 2005 and it's going to be acquired by the New House family Advance Magazine publishers in 2006.
The New House family holds a number of quite interesting companies and sub holdings including Conde Nast, the company which was created by Mr.
Conde Nast, in which you have plenty of fantastic titles.
Vogue and our Win tour is uh, artistic director of Vogue and of Conde Nast and if you remember a very well known film, you understand the relationship with Prada.
How much did they pay for? Already about $10 million, but in 2011 they decided to spin off to allow the company to move to be a little bit more free and to develop, but they kept the number of shares and the company the family stayed owes 30% of the shares, 30% multiplied by 8 billion.
It's about $2.4 billion out of an investment of $10 million.
It's a very decent return investment.
Maybe you remember that Steve Jobs bought a 51% of the shares held by George Lucas in a promising company, which was renamed Pixar at Pixar, was sold to Disney for 4.5, 4.6 uh billion dollars and Steve Jobs still had 51% of the share.
It's about the same kind of return investment, which is quite okay.
Let's move on with the story.
Now we are no more in 2006.
We are in 2014 and then there is a very interesting series B fundraising.
$50 million are going to be raised.
The premium evaluation is 450 million.
There are a few institutions which are going to participate, but they're also private people and the lean investor is a gentleman you all know his name is Sam Altman at that time he is the president of Y Combinator and he's going to be a member of the board of directors of Reddit from 2015 to 2022.
So very recently, and remember the 2022, it's just so important Now how many shares are held by Sam Altman about 800,000 A shares.
I'll discuss A versus B in a few minutes and 11 million of B shares.
You multiply that by $50 and you get about $600 million.
So it's quite an interesting return investment also for Mr.
Lerner.
Now if you want to discuss the relevance of an IPO of the listing of a company, you have to relate that with the financial metrics of the company.
Top line revenues, turnover, okay, but revenues by geographical zone North America versus as the rest of the world.
You transform revenues into operating profit, deducting the operational cost.
Then you can discuss cash, operating costs, cash, operating revenues, ebitda, and when you deduct capital expenditures you get the free cash flow, which is supposedly the value of the company.
What about the top line? There are 100,000 plus active subreddits communities.
How many people are visiting the communities on the average on a regular basis it's about 73 million people.
So it's quite the number of communities sharing questions and answers and souls and people visiting so that you can have data on how they behave.
Interestingly, the number of active users is equally shared between North America and the rest of the world.
It was a case about three years ago.
It's a case today.
In the meantime, uh, rest of the world was a bit more than United States and Canada and North America, but interestingly, if you look at the last quarter, there is a very significant increase in the number of users in North America, which has a huge impact on the top line because a number of users is going to be multiplied by the average revenue per user and if you observe what happens in United States and Canada as opposed to the rest of the world, then there's a very big difference.
You remember Facebook, there are plenty of users everywhere in the world, but the RPU is at its maximum in North America.
It's exactly the same case for Reddit and also the same cases that you have a seasonality.
Why? Because you sell to advertising agendas and then Q4 is stronger than Q1, Q2 and Q3.
You can observe this seasonality in almost all these companies dealing with the same activity.
But what is quite interesting is that Q1 and two and three are up, but what about Q4? It's the same, almost the same the last three years it's quite stable, even a little bit declining in North America a little bit up in the rest of the world there's a kind of stability which you can observe not during the year but at the end of the year during the last quarter.
And interestingly, if you look at the communication of the company in the IPO prospectus, this growth comes from the IPO prospectus.
What do you observe? Global average revenue per user an increase three years ago, but if you look at Q4, it's quite the same Again, what is increasing is not Q4, it's Q1 to Q3.
The company is disclosing the gross rate.
Of course it's 9% Q4 23 as opposed to Q3 23, but what is relevant is not Q4 against Q3, it's Q4 this year against Q4.
The year before is minus 2%.
So where does revenue come? Where does growth is coming? Well, a little bit from the fact that Q1 to Q3 is up, but definitely is a number of users including especially in North America.
If you look at the revenues per geographies, there is a nice increase about three years ago, two years ago stabilization and last year it's up but up.
Why? Because of North America and North America, not because of the average revenue per user, but North America because of the number of users.
So it's interesting to understand that the company is attracting more users in this geographical area.
Growth is driven by the number of users NZO period.
Now interestingly, the company is disclosing its model, its growth model.
Of course the bottom line is advertising.
Current model is about advertising.
We know plenty of people.
You can address these communities, you can sell them good services or whatsoever.
That's interesting.
The top line is about user economies.
As for the future, what is interesting is the one in between data licensing because we have access to plenty of data with all these people, not only to target the advertising campaign, so on and so forth, but to understand their behavior.
And when you are in the business of developing ai, you can train your AI model on what you read in the platforms and that's very interesting because there are many platforms.
So if you want to train your chat GPT, what do you do? You use the subreddits of the company and then you can train your model and you improve the efficiencies.
That's a source of value.
And of course Reddit has to make money Now that when you observe the cost, the operational expenses, you have three periods.
The first period is traditional economies are scale, the company is growing, the expenses are growing, but not at the same rate at the revenue.
This is economies of scale and it works.
So as a percentage to revenues, the cost of sales, r and d, s and m, sales and marketing, general admin, they all go down.
Then there is a period when you have to increase your expenses because you want to offer more services because you want to improve the quality of et cetera.
And then, then not only revenues are increasing, but the costs are increasing as a percentage to revenue.
There's a dramatic impact on the EBITDA as we are going to observe it.
And if you look at the last year, the last year, you control the cost.
So you'll go back to the economy, scale and cost as a percentage to revenues are down.
I calculate the quarterly cost excluding stock base compensation because in my opinion, and I comment that several times on the platform, stock base compensation, which is about restricted stock units, stock options and so on and so forth, it's not a cost, it's an investment made by people in the companies in which they work and in which they have some trust.
So of course you attract good people saying you are going to receive stock options R issues and you are going to be a rich person.
But basically these people are for part of the week employees and for the rest of the week they are investors.
It's not a cost, it's an investment.
Current sequence of that if you can to the quarterly expenses and you get the stock-based compensations out, what do you get? A cost, a real operating cost and in the last quarter it still represents 92%.
So excluding stock based compensation, if you make a dollar of revenue, you spend 92 cents, you understand that it's going to be quite difficult to be really profitable with this cost structure.
Now of course, if you take stock-based compensation, it goes up to more than 100% In the last quarter the stock-based compensation was representing 27% of the cost.
So you understand that the a b is dramatically negative who receive stock-based compensations, more or less r and d, earned general and admin.
Why r and d? Because it's difficult to attract good software developers, engineers, researchers or whatsoever.
And so you have to give them the ability to become rich that that the company is listed and general and admin.
Well, basically it's the CEO and the CEO.
It's a general management company and this is why it's uh, during the last quarter because this is about stock-based, compensation related to the IPO.
Now, if you combine revenues and operating expenses, you exclude from the operating expenses de precision motorization because a non-cash item, you exclude SBC because it's a non-cash item.
And because it's not an expense, you get the adjusted ebitda and then you can compare the adjusted EBITDA evolution with the revenue evolution revenues left hand scale in blue, 80 million per quarter Q1 three years ago and 250 million last quarter, Q4 2023.
What about the be that was about breakevens three years ago? Then it went dramatically down.
Why? Because the costs went up.
These economies of scale I may say.
And at the end of the day, what happened? Economies of scale, again, this is what during the last quarter, it went up and up and up and in Q4 2023, the adjusted EBITDA is positive by 20 million, $20 million out of $250 million, it's about nine, nine point something percent EBITDA to revenues.
So now for the first time over some years, the company is showing a positive adjusted EBITDA time to go public.
Now EBITDA is potential.
Cash is not real cash because you have to exclude the evolution of the working capital requirement, which is a bit negligible, but you have to exclude and deduct capital expenditures.
If you take the full year, 2023, EBITDA was negative by 70, adjusted to SBC of course, and capital expenditures accounts at four 10 million each peanuts but minus 70 minus, instead its minus $80 million.
The company consumed $80 million of cash, but that ends the year.
The company still has $1.2 billion, $1.2 billion of cash.
It is 15 years of cash consumption.
Of cash burden, right? Though if you believe that the EBITDA is going to remain at 9% plus, if you consider that the average CapEx will remain at about 1%, the free cash flow is going to be 8% of revenues.
Then the question is why do you go public? Because you have plenty of cash.
1.2 billion, you're starting generating positive cash flow, positive free cash flows.
So why do you raise an additional half billion selling a shares to the public? Maybe it's because the BD is absolutely not guaranteed for the future and you want to make some investment, but maybe also because you have to pay taxes.
You remember that one of the reasons why Facebook went public is that Mark Zuckerberg had to pay taxes.
You want to offer the possibility for investors to get out of if they want, and for those who want to stay, they have to calculate their old internal rate of return, which they have to communicate to their own investors, though that's quite fair to go public.
But there are two questions which are still on the table.
What about governance and control and what about the moderation of the content of the platform? Let's start with the first question.
You remember I told you there are A shares and B shares.
There are 37 million A shares and 120 million B shares.
The difference is the number of voting rights.
One A share one voting right one B share 10 voting rights.
So you understand that the control is in the hands of the B shareholders.
The 22 million shares which are going to be offered to the public are a shares.
So we will offer to the public is the ability to share the value of the firm, but not the power, not the decisions, not the influence.
What about Steve Hoffman? Steve Hoffman holds 2.3% of a shares.
It's going to sell plenty of them by the way, and then 3.4% of the B shares at the end of the deck.
He has in his hands 3.3% of the voting rights.
But in the prospectus there is a very interesting section which is VOing agreement between Steve Hoffman Advance on 10 said, and altogether they represent 46.3% of the voting rights and they vote together.
So you understand that the influence of Steve Huffman is absolutely fundamental and in the meantime he has 3% of the shares and it's very classic staff.
You know in this kind of companies you have some shares and you have the power, which is a little bit curious sometimes.
Now the second question is, in my opinion, much more important, it's about moderation.
It's always a question for social networks, whether companies create to thousand and five, what is the main principle? Freedom of speech.
This is the first amendment of the American constitution, so you have to right to express your opinion quite freely.
Now, at the very beginning, there were some subreddits which were created by the company and no freedom to create this subreddit.
It starts in 2008.
Then people can start creating communities on any subject and they can put any content.
Now what about moderation? It's self moderation, not imposed by the company.
And moderation is realized by volunteers, un paid volunteers on side.
We do that because which was et cetera, et cetera.
So you understand that they are going to moderate what they want to moderate and then there will be a huge problem in family is rich in 2011 with a sub ready whose name is jail bait, which is very much about pedal pornography.
Of course the company is going to start reacting against this infamy, but not that much.
In 2015 there will be the introduction of quarantine.
So you give less access to some subreddits, which you believe are not that friendly.
At the end of the day, the reputation of Reddit is that it's about misinformation, disinformation, incitement to violence, racism, drug use including opioids, inc, excitement to suicide harassment, disclosure of private information, which is absolutely a disaster for ethics and for the value of the company.
Now, what will be the action of the CEOs in terms of moderation? Ishan Wong, 20 12, 20 14, nothing.
The law is the only limit.
If it's legal, it can be there.
And you understand that the law is very much about the first amendment.
So at the end of the day, if it's really about promoting violence, et cetera, I, we'll stop it, but you understand that the limits are quite limited, very well known person.
Ellen Powell is going to become CEO.
She's going to be CEO During short period of time, 20 14, 20 15.
At the beginning, this very well known lawyer had been hired for monetization, but she's going to become CEO and in charge of cleansing, there will be plenty of fight against her.
And as a consequence of a minor incident, she's going to be forced to resign.
She's going to be replaced by Steve Hoffman from 2015 to today.
He was the first CEO of a company in 2005.
Now, 10 years later, he is back to CEO and up to today, this is quite an interesting story and he's going to continue the work in terms of moderation.
In 2020 2000 subreddits are going to be banned and some of them are quite famous about very famous people in the United States, but you understand that 2000 subreddits out of 100,000, it's negligible and with about the rest of the community, they're doing good job.
They are sharing sorts questions.
It's about sentences, it's about questions, about replies, and that's a fantastic source of data, source of value.
This considerable source of value is going to be used by AI developers, large language models because it's a fantastic field for the training of the app.
Open ai, Sam Alman.
Sam Alman is member of the board up to 2022.
Open AI is going to massively train Chad d PT using Reddit sub communities.
So you understand that here you have a fantastic source of value and this is what they are going to do.
They say we have to monetize the access to the platform, to the community and to the sub communities.
In June, 2023, the company says, now the API ready API, the application programming interface, it's going to be paid now by users.
Beforehand it was absolutely negligible.
Now you have to pay and as you have to pay, some people are going to go okay that and there will be a strike.
There will be a strike.
Because of this monetization consequence of the moderation of the company, now you have to pay something like point $24 per month for 1000 requests.
1000 request looks big.
It's negligible because if you really want to do some job, it's about tens of millions of requests and that is going to cost you millions of dollars a year before it was free or almost free.
Consequence of the strike, nothing.
So strike stop, but consequence of the monetization.
Google signed in February, 2024, a few weeks before the IPO, an agreement with Reddit.
Google wants to have access to the sub communities to train Gemini.
Gemini is a competitor of Chad GPT, and the cab is ready to pay $80 million.
If you compare that with a cash amount for Google, it's peanuts, but for Reddit, it's not peanuts because $80 million, it's four times the EBDA generated by the CABER in Q4 2023, the first time it became positive in the past.
So you understand that there is a lot of value behind that and that's the equity story.
Now, we have completed the moderation.
We have monetization, we have monetization because we have some gross options.
We are going to be able to exercise, then you can go public.
So the reason why the company made a successful IPO, it's because of moderation and monetization, more or less as a consequence of this moderation, which is quite interesting because moderation is about ethics and monetization is about value.
And here you have an interesting interaction between ethics and value creation.
This interaction is of course in the middle of plenty of debates and it's still a very open debate, but our ethical values creating financial values, this is a quite interesting and open question.
Thank you very much.