WEBVTT 1 00:00:07.600 --> 00:00:10.900 Hello and welcome to this film which is devoted to 2 00:00:10.900 --> 00:00:13.600 the pending acquisition of one medical 3 00:00:13.600 --> 00:00:14.800 by Amazon. 4 00:00:15.600 --> 00:00:18.500 Definitely there is no need to introduce the Amazon 5 00:00:18.500 --> 00:00:22.900 business model and the outstanding successful 6 00:00:21.900 --> 00:00:24.400 extension which 7 00:00:24.400 --> 00:00:27.700 is cloud computing and Amazon web services, 8 00:00:27.700 --> 00:00:30.600 but Amazon also tries to open new 9 00:00:30.600 --> 00:00:33.100 business Avenues and the consequence of that is 10 00:00:33.100 --> 00:00:36.400 plenty of quite significant acquisitions. 11 00:00:37.300 --> 00:00:40.800 2009 Zappos 1.2 billion 12 00:00:40.800 --> 00:00:44.400 then Twitch streaming woolfoods 13 00:00:43.400 --> 00:00:47.600 food distribution pill pack 14 00:00:47.600 --> 00:00:51.600 Pharmacy Amazon care Amazon Pharmacy 15 00:00:50.600 --> 00:00:53.500 zukes in the self-driving, of 16 00:00:53.500 --> 00:00:56.900 course MGM to complement Amazon Prime in 17 00:00:56.900 --> 00:00:59.500 the movie business one medical 18 00:00:59.500 --> 00:01:02.600 3.5 billion dollars of 19 00:01:02.600 --> 00:01:05.900 Enterprise Value and recently announced 20 00:01:05.900 --> 00:01:09.000 in the cleaning and home care business. I Robot 21 00:01:08.500 --> 00:01:11.900 so you understand that. It's quite a significant list 22 00:01:11.900 --> 00:01:14.700 and I would like to Deep dive a little bit into the 23 00:01:14.700 --> 00:01:17.700 one medical acquisition. It was 24 00:01:17.700 --> 00:01:21.200 announced on the 20th of July since you're 25 00:01:21.200 --> 00:01:24.100 2022 Amazon is going to buy the 26 00:01:24.100 --> 00:01:27.500 company for an Enterprise value of 3.5 billion 27 00:01:27.500 --> 00:01:30.900 dollars the amount represents when Aaron 95 28 00:01:30.900 --> 00:01:33.700 million shares multiplied by 18 dollars 29 00:01:33.700 --> 00:01:36.100 companies proposing 18 dollars, and if you 30 00:01:36.100 --> 00:01:37.000 look at the stock, 31 00:01:37.200 --> 00:01:41.300 Step. It's a little bit lower than that. It's about 17.4 32 00:01:40.300 --> 00:01:43.600 dollars per share. Some people 33 00:01:43.600 --> 00:01:47.300 are questioning about the reaction of antitrust authorities 34 00:01:46.300 --> 00:01:49.100 will see how it works a little 35 00:01:49.100 --> 00:01:52.800 bit later one medical was founded in 2007 and 36 00:01:52.800 --> 00:01:56.300 the initial business is a chain of primary health 37 00:01:55.300 --> 00:01:58.600 care clinics. So not 38 00:01:58.600 --> 00:02:01.400 something very sophisticated but just 39 00:02:01.400 --> 00:02:05.300 simple stuff simple service offered 40 00:02:04.300 --> 00:02:07.600 to people then one medical developed 41 00:02:07.600 --> 00:02:10.400 another business, which is about paying a 42 00:02:10.400 --> 00:02:13.300 membership $200 per year so that you 43 00:02:13.300 --> 00:02:16.200 can have access to a doctor. This is 44 00:02:16.200 --> 00:02:19.300 why Financial Times title to 45 00:02:19.300 --> 00:02:23.400 announce Emma's own buys one medical is Alex get 46 00:02:22.400 --> 00:02:25.100 me a doctor. If you look at 47 00:02:25.100 --> 00:02:28.800 how one medical World Finals throughout the years the 48 00:02:28.800 --> 00:02:32.400 main investor was Carlisle in 2018, the 49 00:02:32.400 --> 00:02:35.700 company provided three Heron 350 million dollars, but 50 00:02:35.700 --> 00:02:36.800 the entire amount of 51 00:02:37.200 --> 00:02:40.300 Was no devoted to finance growth for one 52 00:02:40.300 --> 00:02:44.000 medical because when her 130 million dollars were devoted 53 00:02:43.100 --> 00:02:46.800 to secondary markets, which 54 00:02:46.800 --> 00:02:49.500 basically means that you buy the shares 55 00:02:49.500 --> 00:02:52.500 which are sold by other investors. So 56 00:02:52.500 --> 00:02:55.200 the Monet does not get into the bank account of the 57 00:02:55.200 --> 00:02:58.100 company. It goes into the bank account of the 58 00:02:58.100 --> 00:03:01.400 investors the other shareholders the total 59 00:03:01.400 --> 00:03:04.800 amount of money funding for one medical was 60 00:03:04.800 --> 00:03:07.200 a bit more than half a billion. So you understand that 61 00:03:07.200 --> 00:03:11.000 Caroline was a main provider, but it's 62 00:03:10.300 --> 00:03:14.000 not the only partner Google backed very 63 00:03:13.100 --> 00:03:16.800 much the evolution of one medical providing the 64 00:03:16.800 --> 00:03:18.900 Google Play application. 65 00:03:19.900 --> 00:03:23.000 Now you understand that one medical combines in 66 00:03:22.800 --> 00:03:25.900 person and online Health 67 00:03:25.900 --> 00:03:28.200 medical services. So you have 68 00:03:28.200 --> 00:03:31.200 the access to the clinic but you also have the access to the 69 00:03:31.200 --> 00:03:34.500 doctor. The company went public in January 70 00:03:34.500 --> 00:03:37.500 2020. What happens in then 71 00:03:37.500 --> 00:03:40.300 stock price is a little bit volatile at 72 00:03:40.300 --> 00:03:43.300 the very beginning then it goes up a little bit down and then 73 00:03:43.300 --> 00:03:46.900 dramatically up why coffee we all 74 00:03:46.900 --> 00:03:49.800 know plenty of companies including Zoom which 75 00:03:49.800 --> 00:03:52.800 we have very much boosted by online services 76 00:03:52.800 --> 00:03:55.000 and coffee. Then there is 77 00:03:55.200 --> 00:03:59.100 a very strong decline in the stock price part 78 00:03:58.100 --> 00:04:01.800 of it is because of misconduct of 79 00:04:01.800 --> 00:04:04.500 the company. I will go back to this point in 80 00:04:04.500 --> 00:04:07.100 a minute and stock price was divided by 81 00:04:07.100 --> 00:04:10.300 10 from a maximal 60 to a low point 82 00:04:10.300 --> 00:04:13.600 of six dollars then from six dollars to up 83 00:04:13.600 --> 00:04:16.200 to 10 dollars and the stock price today is very much 84 00:04:16.200 --> 00:04:19.200 driven by the Amazon offer know let's 85 00:04:19.200 --> 00:04:19.500 go back to the 86 00:04:19.800 --> 00:04:22.300 Size figures when the company is listed. 87 00:04:22.300 --> 00:04:25.700 The offered price is $14 opening 18 88 00:04:25.700 --> 00:04:28.800 closing 22. So it's 89 00:04:28.800 --> 00:04:31.300 plus 58% in one day 90 00:04:31.300 --> 00:04:34.200 from offered price to closing when the stock 91 00:04:34.200 --> 00:04:37.300 market is done by 2% this day. So you 92 00:04:37.300 --> 00:04:41.200 understand that the welcome of the market is extremely warm. 93 00:04:41.900 --> 00:04:44.300 Then the company stock price boosted by 94 00:04:44.300 --> 00:04:48.400 covid maximum will be arranged in February 2021 95 00:04:47.600 --> 00:04:50.300 $60 per share 96 00:04:50.300 --> 00:04:53.700 starting from 14 or 18. That's a 97 00:04:53.700 --> 00:04:56.500 fantastic track record while the stock 98 00:04:56.500 --> 00:04:59.700 price of one medical is declining in September 99 00:04:59.700 --> 00:05:02.900 2021 the company buys Euro, 100 00:05:02.900 --> 00:05:06.000 which is also in the health business providing 101 00:05:05.400 --> 00:05:09.300 services and simple Primary 102 00:05:08.300 --> 00:05:12.300 Care the population which 103 00:05:11.300 --> 00:05:14.400 is advised by this business is very much a 104 00:05:14.400 --> 00:05:17.200 Medicare population at that time 105 00:05:17.200 --> 00:05:20.500 steel. They are room or that one medical is not 106 00:05:20.500 --> 00:05:23.900 doing the right things for people and then 107 00:05:23.900 --> 00:05:26.300 it's going to be accused in the December 108 00:05:26.300 --> 00:05:29.900 2021 by the coronavirus subcommittee of 109 00:05:29.900 --> 00:05:32.200 unscrupulous conduct. 110 00:05:32.800 --> 00:05:35.800 And they were accused of making money 111 00:05:35.800 --> 00:05:39.100 instead of providing house. The consequence 112 00:05:38.100 --> 00:05:41.200 is as I said before that's a stock 113 00:05:41.200 --> 00:05:44.900 price is going to get to a lowest point, which is six dollars. 114 00:05:45.500 --> 00:05:49.200 Hardly getting to 10 and now 17 18 115 00:05:48.200 --> 00:05:51.200 because of Amazon. Of course, 116 00:05:51.200 --> 00:05:54.100 you can say that NASDAQ Evolution was a little 117 00:05:54.100 --> 00:05:57.200 bit couches last month. That's true. But if 118 00:05:57.200 --> 00:06:00.700 You observe the Benchmark between one medical 119 00:06:00.700 --> 00:06:03.800 and a NASDAQ since the IPO of 120 00:06:03.800 --> 00:06:06.400 one medical what do You observe You observe that 121 00:06:06.400 --> 00:06:09.500 is kind of continuation one medical 122 00:06:09.500 --> 00:06:12.400 and as Dax they go together, then you get to a 123 00:06:12.400 --> 00:06:16.000 high point at the end of 2020 beginning of 124 00:06:15.900 --> 00:06:19.300 2021 there after while NASDAQ 125 00:06:18.300 --> 00:06:21.400 is going to show some slow growth and 126 00:06:21.400 --> 00:06:24.500 then some difficulties one medical is 127 00:06:24.500 --> 00:06:28.300 collapsing gets to a little point and then goal slightly 128 00:06:27.300 --> 00:06:30.500 up. So you understand that is 129 00:06:30.500 --> 00:06:33.900 a correlation and then no correlation anymore if you 130 00:06:33.900 --> 00:06:36.600 can calculate the beta over the entire 131 00:06:36.600 --> 00:06:40.600 period you get a better which is 2.20 something 132 00:06:40.600 --> 00:06:43.700 but you understand that these parameter is absolutely 133 00:06:43.700 --> 00:06:45.100 meaningless because 134 00:06:45.500 --> 00:06:48.700 Have two sub periods. This is 135 00:06:48.700 --> 00:06:51.600 why a little bit later. I will calculate a 136 00:06:51.600 --> 00:06:54.700 much shorter beta in terms of time range. 137 00:06:54.700 --> 00:06:57.500 Now. There are a couple of events. It's a 138 00:06:57.500 --> 00:07:00.800 story of one medical which I'm going to use as example 139 00:07:00.800 --> 00:07:03.400 to illustrate something very important, which is 140 00:07:03.400 --> 00:07:06.400 information asymmetry. Let's make a 141 00:07:06.400 --> 00:07:09.500 couple of minutes discussing theory and practice about 142 00:07:09.500 --> 00:07:12.600 when you make an equity announcement what happens to 143 00:07:12.600 --> 00:07:15.500 Capital markets and the interpretation of 144 00:07:15.500 --> 00:07:19.100 what happens it's name information asymmetry, 145 00:07:18.100 --> 00:07:21.900 which basically says that shareholders. They 146 00:07:21.900 --> 00:07:24.400 don't know much about what the companies 147 00:07:24.400 --> 00:07:27.600 doing. They don't know much about the inside of 148 00:07:27.600 --> 00:07:30.200 the company. Oh they know about the past but what 149 00:07:30.200 --> 00:07:33.800 about the future not much is disclosed because very often 150 00:07:33.800 --> 00:07:37.200 it is regarded as fully confidential and 151 00:07:36.200 --> 00:07:39.500 it would be disclosed at the expense 152 00:07:39.500 --> 00:07:42.800 of shareholders as well. So the company is coming 153 00:07:42.800 --> 00:07:45.100 they can't think but without this 154 00:07:45.500 --> 00:07:48.700 Losing which is quite an issue because the shareholders 155 00:07:48.700 --> 00:07:52.200 did not know again that much about the real story 156 00:07:52.200 --> 00:07:55.800 inside the company among Financial events, 157 00:07:55.800 --> 00:07:58.400 which are really communication to 158 00:07:58.400 --> 00:08:02.900 the market the evolution of gearing adaptedness debt 159 00:08:01.900 --> 00:08:04.200 to equity debt to leverage 160 00:08:04.200 --> 00:08:07.300 the companies increasing debt. Why because 161 00:08:07.300 --> 00:08:11.400 the company feels very confident about the future or the 162 00:08:11.400 --> 00:08:14.100 capital is dead is increasing why because the company's making 163 00:08:14.100 --> 00:08:17.200 losses. This is exactly the same event. It's not 164 00:08:17.200 --> 00:08:20.700 exactly the same interpretation dividend policy. Do 165 00:08:20.700 --> 00:08:23.100 you stabilize a dividend you cut down 166 00:08:23.100 --> 00:08:26.600 the dividend do double the dividend why the nature 167 00:08:26.600 --> 00:08:30.200 of the fonts which are raised is also quite important. Do 168 00:08:29.200 --> 00:08:32.600 you is you dead do is you 169 00:08:32.600 --> 00:08:35.500 Equity. Do you hybrid convertible debt? 170 00:08:35.500 --> 00:08:38.900 We are going to discuss that again in a minute, but then 171 00:08:38.900 --> 00:08:41.200 you understand that the reaction of the market is going 172 00:08:41.200 --> 00:08:44.400 to be positive or negative depending on how 173 00:08:44.400 --> 00:08:45.000 the market is. 174 00:08:45.400 --> 00:08:48.700 Interpreting and what is very difficult is to 175 00:08:48.700 --> 00:08:51.800 interpret what the market is doing and transform 176 00:08:51.800 --> 00:08:54.500 that into a little bit of forecasting the day you 177 00:08:54.500 --> 00:08:57.800 decide to do something and communicate to the market. Let 178 00:08:57.800 --> 00:09:01.000 me give you an example to complete these theoretical 179 00:09:00.000 --> 00:09:01.800 input. 180 00:09:02.400 --> 00:09:05.700 Shares buy back. The company is buying its 181 00:09:05.700 --> 00:09:08.400 own chairs. How do you temper that there are 182 00:09:08.400 --> 00:09:11.100 two ways to interpret one is companies buying back 183 00:09:11.100 --> 00:09:14.300 the shares to return the cash to shareholders because the company 184 00:09:14.300 --> 00:09:18.100 has absolutely no project for the future or the board 185 00:09:17.100 --> 00:09:20.400 is deciding to buy back the 186 00:09:20.400 --> 00:09:23.400 shares why because the ball is absolutely convinced as 187 00:09:23.400 --> 00:09:26.400 a stock price should be merge higher than what it 188 00:09:26.400 --> 00:09:29.700 is. You have first a negative interpretation 189 00:09:29.700 --> 00:09:31.200 second positive one. 190 00:09:31.900 --> 00:09:34.400 How are you going to forecast the 191 00:09:34.400 --> 00:09:37.400 market interpretation? You can't now when the 192 00:09:37.400 --> 00:09:40.600 company's communicating and sending a signal 193 00:09:40.600 --> 00:09:43.300 to the market. We have one way to 194 00:09:43.300 --> 00:09:47.500 measure the impact that the method which is named abnormal returns. 195 00:09:48.200 --> 00:09:51.300 Five steps the first one is you calculate the 196 00:09:51.300 --> 00:09:54.700 beta which is a correlation between the stock price and Market 197 00:09:54.700 --> 00:09:57.300 Evolution you obver the market and 198 00:09:57.300 --> 00:10:00.900 you make the correlation a little bit before the even 199 00:10:00.900 --> 00:10:03.300 before the communication before the signal 200 00:10:03.300 --> 00:10:07.100 very often 20 days before then you 201 00:10:06.100 --> 00:10:09.800 observe the market Evolution after as 202 00:10:09.800 --> 00:10:13.000 you announcement after the signal 10 days 203 00:10:12.100 --> 00:10:15.600 after 20 days after then you 204 00:10:15.600 --> 00:10:18.300 can calculate the no more evolution of 205 00:10:18.300 --> 00:10:22.200 the stock price between before and after imagine 206 00:10:21.200 --> 00:10:24.800 that your beta is too imagine that 207 00:10:24.800 --> 00:10:28.700 the market is press 1.5% Your 208 00:10:27.700 --> 00:10:30.500 stock price should show us to 209 00:10:30.500 --> 00:10:33.200 times 1.5% which is 210 00:10:33.200 --> 00:10:36.200 plus three percent. This would be the normal evolution of 211 00:10:36.200 --> 00:10:36.900 your stock price. 212 00:10:37.800 --> 00:10:40.900 Then you can observe the actual evolution 213 00:10:40.900 --> 00:10:43.700 of your stock price and then you're going to compare the 214 00:10:43.700 --> 00:10:46.700 normal Evolution versus the actual 215 00:10:46.700 --> 00:10:49.300 one. Then you compare and you try 216 00:10:49.300 --> 00:10:53.000 to interpret why the market positively or negatively 217 00:10:52.800 --> 00:10:55.400 reacted to what you announced. 218 00:10:55.400 --> 00:10:59.000 I'm going to propose you two events to Communications 219 00:10:58.400 --> 00:11:01.800 to signals which are quite close 220 00:11:01.800 --> 00:11:02.300 to each other. 221 00:11:03.200 --> 00:11:06.900 The first one in May 2020 is when one 222 00:11:06.900 --> 00:11:09.800 medical is issuing a convertible node 223 00:11:09.800 --> 00:11:12.300 convertible Bond a few 224 00:11:12.300 --> 00:11:16.300 weeks later in June 2020 when some investors 225 00:11:15.300 --> 00:11:19.100 are addressing the secondary Market 226 00:11:18.100 --> 00:11:22.100 selling their shares to other investors. 227 00:11:21.100 --> 00:11:24.400 Let's have a look at these two. 228 00:11:24.400 --> 00:11:27.800 Even the first one is one medical issues 229 00:11:27.800 --> 00:11:30.500 a convertible note. We are in May 2020. 230 00:11:31.400 --> 00:11:34.400 The amount of money which is raised is 300 million dollars. 231 00:11:34.400 --> 00:11:37.500 So total amounts of fonts raised is 232 00:11:37.500 --> 00:11:40.400 300 million dollars and the nominal of each 233 00:11:40.400 --> 00:11:43.400 and every Bond standing alone is 1000 dollars. 234 00:11:43.400 --> 00:11:46.400 The coupon is 3% The maturity is 235 00:11:46.400 --> 00:11:49.400 20 25, so it's a five-year bomb. 236 00:11:50.200 --> 00:11:53.600 A convertible Bond a convertible note is a bond which 237 00:11:53.600 --> 00:11:56.200 you can convert and so the question is 238 00:11:56.200 --> 00:11:59.300 in how many shares this is named the conversion rate which is 239 00:11:59.300 --> 00:12:02.700 a fundamental parameter in any convertible issue 240 00:12:02.700 --> 00:12:06.000 20 2.5. Oh 241 00:12:05.200 --> 00:12:08.600 five two, which means that at the maturity 242 00:12:08.600 --> 00:12:11.700 you can decide to ask for your money back 243 00:12:11.700 --> 00:12:14.300 1,000 or you can ask 244 00:12:14.300 --> 00:12:17.700 for the conversion of your bone into 22 dot 245 00:12:17.700 --> 00:12:20.300 five shares issued at 246 00:12:20.300 --> 00:12:23.600 that time. There are a couple of interesting calculations to 247 00:12:23.600 --> 00:12:27.100 make out of that first you look at the currents the 248 00:12:26.100 --> 00:12:30.100 price when the bone is easier. It is 32.3 249 00:12:29.100 --> 00:12:33.600 dollars. There are a couple of immediate calculations 250 00:12:32.600 --> 00:12:35.600 which are quite interesting and 251 00:12:35.600 --> 00:12:38.400 relevant for any convertible born issue first 252 00:12:38.400 --> 00:12:41.800 calculation. You pay one thousand dollars. Are 253 00:12:41.800 --> 00:12:44.700 you going to convert the bone immediately? If 254 00:12:44.700 --> 00:12:48.000 you convert you'll get 22.5 shares 255 00:12:47.500 --> 00:12:50.000 you can sell the shares at 256 00:12:50.100 --> 00:12:53.200 2.3 jars per share how much you get into 257 00:12:53.200 --> 00:12:56.200 your pocket? 727 so of course 258 00:12:56.200 --> 00:12:59.100 you're not going to do it because you're not going 259 00:12:59.100 --> 00:13:04.100 to pay 1,000 to get 727 in 260 00:13:02.100 --> 00:13:05.700 finance. We say that the option 261 00:13:05.700 --> 00:13:08.500 the convertibility option is out of 262 00:13:08.500 --> 00:13:11.500 the money. There's absolutely no real motivation 263 00:13:11.500 --> 00:13:13.400 to exercise the option today. 264 00:13:14.200 --> 00:13:17.700 But there will be a motivation to exercise later is 265 00:13:17.700 --> 00:13:20.500 a stock price is up. Then we can calculate 266 00:13:20.500 --> 00:13:23.700 the kind of break even your pet 1,000 267 00:13:23.700 --> 00:13:26.600 and you will get if you exercise a 268 00:13:26.600 --> 00:13:29.300 conversion right 22.5 shares so you 269 00:13:29.300 --> 00:13:32.400 understand that if they're value of the share is 270 00:13:32.400 --> 00:13:36.200 minimum 44.4 dollars, then 271 00:13:35.200 --> 00:13:38.300 it's going to be a motivation to 272 00:13:38.300 --> 00:13:42.100 convert instead of asking for the 1,000 273 00:13:41.100 --> 00:13:44.100 back. This is a break even and the 274 00:13:44.100 --> 00:13:47.700 Breakeven was rich in generate 2021 and 275 00:13:47.700 --> 00:13:50.100 beyond that because you remember that the stock price 276 00:13:50.100 --> 00:13:53.300 went to a high point of 16 hours. So 277 00:13:53.300 --> 00:13:56.100 if you get back to the graph, you understand the stock price 278 00:13:56.100 --> 00:13:59.300 is up. There is an opportunity the market is ready. 279 00:13:59.300 --> 00:14:02.700 I need to know Paul Tunis stick issue, 280 00:14:02.700 --> 00:14:05.700 which is to issue the convertible bone today. The 281 00:14:05.700 --> 00:14:08.100 question is what does it communicate to the 282 00:14:08.100 --> 00:14:11.400 investors? What is going to be there interpretation and 283 00:14:11.400 --> 00:14:14.000 their reaction to this communication? Let's go. 284 00:14:14.100 --> 00:14:17.400 a minute on the motivations for a company to 285 00:14:17.400 --> 00:14:18.900 issue a convertible Bond 286 00:14:19.400 --> 00:14:22.400 a convertible ball is a straight Bond, press the 287 00:14:22.400 --> 00:14:25.400 option to convert so call option because you have 288 00:14:25.400 --> 00:14:28.600 the right to buy stocks. Of course, 289 00:14:28.600 --> 00:14:31.200 you don't get the same coupon as if you 290 00:14:31.200 --> 00:14:34.700 had invested in a straight Bond why because 291 00:14:34.700 --> 00:14:37.300 in addition to the straight ball, you have the right to 292 00:14:37.300 --> 00:14:40.200 convert so you get the lower coupon and the difference between 293 00:14:40.200 --> 00:14:43.300 the straight Coupe and the convertible coupon is a 294 00:14:43.300 --> 00:14:46.200 premium you pay to have the right to convert. This 295 00:14:46.200 --> 00:14:49.500 is named the option premium for the 296 00:14:49.500 --> 00:14:52.500 company. It's absolutely great. Why because 297 00:14:52.500 --> 00:14:55.400 you have a lower work coupons, but you are going 298 00:14:55.400 --> 00:14:58.900 to postpone and reduce dilution. Why do 299 00:14:58.900 --> 00:14:59.800 you postpone delusion? 300 00:15:00.500 --> 00:15:03.600 Simply because when you issue the bone, nobody has 301 00:15:03.600 --> 00:15:06.500 any motivation to convert the bond into 302 00:15:06.500 --> 00:15:09.500 shares the option is out of the money and 303 00:15:09.500 --> 00:15:13.700 you remember that you are not going to prefer 727 to 304 00:15:13.700 --> 00:15:17.200 1,000. So you are going to convert later 305 00:15:16.200 --> 00:15:19.400 when the option becomes 306 00:15:19.400 --> 00:15:22.500 in the morning and you're speaking at maturity. 307 00:15:22.500 --> 00:15:25.300 So your postponed delusion in addition to that 308 00:15:25.300 --> 00:15:28.400 the day you actually convert the 309 00:15:28.400 --> 00:15:32.000 bond. How many shares are you going to issue? 22.5? 310 00:15:32.800 --> 00:15:35.500 Imagine that you consider the alternative which 311 00:15:35.500 --> 00:15:38.100 is to issue shares today. How many 312 00:15:38.100 --> 00:15:41.500 shares are you going to issue in order to get $1,000? 313 00:15:42.300 --> 00:15:45.200 The starting point The Benchmark is a current stock price, 314 00:15:45.200 --> 00:15:48.300 which is 32.3 dollars. You remember that the 315 00:15:48.300 --> 00:15:51.900 day you want to issue as you will have to offer a discount. So the 316 00:15:51.900 --> 00:15:54.900 new Shares are going to be issue that less than 317 00:15:54.900 --> 00:15:58.100 32.3 dollars maybe 30 dollars. 318 00:15:57.100 --> 00:16:00.300 And then in order to get $1,000 319 00:16:00.300 --> 00:16:03.800 you will have to issue 30 three shares. So you 320 00:16:03.800 --> 00:16:06.500 will have to if you significantly more than 30 shares 321 00:16:06.500 --> 00:16:10.000 today instead of 22.5 tomorrow 322 00:16:09.000 --> 00:16:12.500 you postpone and 323 00:16:12.500 --> 00:16:15.600 you're reduced delusion. Which kind of signal do 324 00:16:15.600 --> 00:16:18.500 you send to the market? You say? Okay guys, you're buying 325 00:16:18.500 --> 00:16:21.600 the bone today and you will convert tomorrow, but 326 00:16:21.600 --> 00:16:24.500 you will convert because it's stock price will go up 327 00:16:24.500 --> 00:16:27.600 and that's an extremely positive signal. 328 00:16:28.600 --> 00:16:31.700 But then the investors might also tell you why don't 329 00:16:31.700 --> 00:16:34.700 you issue straight there today, which you 330 00:16:34.700 --> 00:16:37.500 are going to repay tomorrow when 331 00:16:37.500 --> 00:16:40.500 the stock price is up issuing shares 332 00:16:40.500 --> 00:16:43.300 tomorrow at The Benchmark, which is a much 333 00:16:43.300 --> 00:16:46.900 higher stock price. So you understand there's a little bit of ambiguity in 334 00:16:46.900 --> 00:16:49.600 the signal. Of course, you could argue that in 335 00:16:49.600 --> 00:16:52.100 a case of one medical it's very difficult to 336 00:16:52.100 --> 00:16:55.500 issue straight that because itself is 337 00:16:55.500 --> 00:16:58.100 negative. So there is no need to add and 338 00:16:58.100 --> 00:17:01.600 pile up a huge amount of interest expense when they 339 00:17:01.600 --> 00:17:04.400 be that is already not able to pay the 340 00:17:04.400 --> 00:17:07.600 depreciation and amortization. Now the company made these 341 00:17:07.600 --> 00:17:10.600 you and why did we observe in order to cancel the 342 00:17:10.600 --> 00:17:13.200 abnormal return? The first thing we have to do is to calculate 343 00:17:13.200 --> 00:17:16.600 the beta shortly before the announcement and the 344 00:17:16.600 --> 00:17:19.300 beta is 1.6, which is quite different from 345 00:17:19.300 --> 00:17:22.700 the 2.20 something we observe for the entire period 346 00:17:22.700 --> 00:17:25.800 This one is much more relevant for abnormal returns 347 00:17:25.800 --> 00:17:28.100 10 days after the publication of the 348 00:17:28.500 --> 00:17:31.600 Vertical node prospectus so NASDAQ is 349 00:17:31.600 --> 00:17:34.700 a by one point. Oh four percent the normal 350 00:17:34.700 --> 00:17:37.900 evolution of the stock price of one medical should 351 00:17:37.900 --> 00:17:41.900 have been 1.6 times 1.04, which 352 00:17:41.900 --> 00:17:45.400 is plus 1.67. Now 353 00:17:44.400 --> 00:17:47.500 You observe the actual return over 354 00:17:47.500 --> 00:17:51.200 the period and it's minus 8.64% 355 00:17:52.100 --> 00:17:56.200 So you understand that the abnormal return which is the actual minus 356 00:17:55.200 --> 00:18:00.300 the normal is minus 8.64 minus 357 00:17:59.300 --> 00:18:02.200 1.67, which is 358 00:18:02.200 --> 00:18:05.700 a gap of 10.3 percent. So 359 00:18:05.700 --> 00:18:08.800 you understand that the market reaction is quite negative. 360 00:18:08.800 --> 00:18:11.300 You can argue that maybe 10 days is 361 00:18:11.300 --> 00:18:14.200 not long enough as a period you look at 20 days 362 00:18:14.200 --> 00:18:17.500 same conclusion now, how can we interpret this 363 00:18:17.500 --> 00:18:19.900 negative reaction by the market? 364 00:18:20.700 --> 00:18:23.600 The last official and financial communication we 365 00:18:23.600 --> 00:18:26.600 get from the company is a tank you 366 00:18:26.600 --> 00:18:30.500 report quarterly report first quarter 2020 367 00:18:29.500 --> 00:18:32.500 and the balance sheet 368 00:18:32.500 --> 00:18:35.700 shows cash at Bank of 375 million dollars, 369 00:18:35.700 --> 00:18:38.600 which is quite significant when the 370 00:18:38.600 --> 00:18:42.600 company was listed its raised 245 million 371 00:18:42.600 --> 00:18:45.800 plus a cash at bank at that time minus a 372 00:18:45.800 --> 00:18:48.800 cash which was consumed in a mean time is 3 373 00:18:48.800 --> 00:18:50.500 and 75 million. 374 00:18:51.400 --> 00:18:54.600 Now if you look at the operating cash flow for this first quarter 375 00:18:54.600 --> 00:18:57.600 2020, the company consumes in its 376 00:18:57.600 --> 00:19:00.500 business operations, 13 million and the company 377 00:19:00.500 --> 00:19:04.200 is investing Capital expenditures for the future 20 million. 378 00:19:03.200 --> 00:19:06.300 So the cash out is 379 00:19:06.300 --> 00:19:08.700 minus 33 million dollars. 380 00:19:09.500 --> 00:19:12.400 But then as you have 375 million 381 00:19:12.400 --> 00:19:16.000 dollars in the bank account, you can quote survive 382 00:19:15.200 --> 00:19:18.000 during at least 11 quarters. 383 00:19:19.900 --> 00:19:22.800 What's probably not true because in the future as a 384 00:19:22.800 --> 00:19:25.100 company is growing more cash is going to 385 00:19:25.100 --> 00:19:26.100 be needed. 386 00:19:26.700 --> 00:19:29.400 But you could consider that maybe the 387 00:19:29.400 --> 00:19:32.800 375 are needed. Maybe not 388 00:19:32.800 --> 00:19:35.300 now the market concluded that it was 389 00:19:35.300 --> 00:19:37.000 a negative signal. 390 00:19:38.100 --> 00:19:41.900 It's just an opinion Saigon event a 391 00:19:41.900 --> 00:19:45.200 few weeks later June 2020. The 392 00:19:44.200 --> 00:19:49.000 stock price is back to 31.8 dollars 393 00:19:48.700 --> 00:19:51.400 and the company's announcing that 394 00:19:51.400 --> 00:19:54.800 some critical investors some fundamental investors 395 00:19:54.800 --> 00:19:57.100 including Caroline are going to 396 00:19:57.100 --> 00:19:58.300 sell shares. 397 00:19:58.800 --> 00:20:01.400 But they are going to sell their shares on the secondary 398 00:20:01.400 --> 00:20:04.600 Market to other institutional or private 399 00:20:04.600 --> 00:20:07.100 investors. This shareholders are going to 400 00:20:07.100 --> 00:20:10.900 sell 8.3 million shares Carlisle represents 401 00:20:10.900 --> 00:20:14.600 7.5 out of the 8.3. No 402 00:20:13.600 --> 00:20:16.000 additional cash in the bank account of the 403 00:20:16.400 --> 00:20:19.700 company because it's about shareholders selling to shareholders. 404 00:20:21.100 --> 00:20:25.200 If you look at the premon evaluation when Carlisle 405 00:20:24.200 --> 00:20:27.500 invested in one medical it 406 00:20:27.500 --> 00:20:31.300 was 1.3 billion the value 407 00:20:30.300 --> 00:20:33.400 of the company when Carlisle is 408 00:20:33.400 --> 00:20:36.100 selling its shares. It's 4 billion 409 00:20:36.100 --> 00:20:40.000 dollars. We just the same number of shares at 410 00:20:39.100 --> 00:20:42.900 the end of the day. It means that the value was multiplied 411 00:20:42.900 --> 00:20:45.700 by three and that's a quite 412 00:20:45.700 --> 00:20:48.400 nice internal rate of return. It's now 413 00:20:48.400 --> 00:20:51.500 calculate the abnormal returns. We need a beta 414 00:20:51.500 --> 00:20:54.100 1.54 not that far from the 415 00:20:54.100 --> 00:20:57.400 1.60, but it was just a few days later 416 00:20:57.400 --> 00:21:00.500 NASDAQ 10 days after the publication 417 00:21:00.500 --> 00:21:05.500 of the prospectus plus 6% 6.44% The 418 00:21:04.500 --> 00:21:09.700 normal return should have been 1.54 beta 419 00:21:08.700 --> 00:21:11.700 times NASDAQ upside 420 00:21:11.700 --> 00:21:14.200 6.44. It should 421 00:21:14.200 --> 00:21:17.800 have been plus 10% The actual return is all 422 00:21:17.800 --> 00:21:20.700 most plus 26% So the 423 00:21:21.100 --> 00:21:25.300 More returns 26 minus 10 is plus 16% So 424 00:21:24.300 --> 00:21:27.800 you understand that the market very 425 00:21:27.800 --> 00:21:31.100 positively interpreted this move. 426 00:21:30.100 --> 00:21:33.300 Do you understand that the reaction of the market 427 00:21:33.300 --> 00:21:36.300 was quite positive which might be a 428 00:21:36.300 --> 00:21:39.500 little bit of a surprise when you're interpret that considering that 429 00:21:39.500 --> 00:21:42.500 the investors the Insiders are simply 430 00:21:42.500 --> 00:21:43.700 leaving the boat. 431 00:21:44.500 --> 00:21:47.700 If they sell their shares, it's probably because the 432 00:21:47.700 --> 00:21:50.500 considers that you are getting to a high point and 433 00:21:50.500 --> 00:21:52.800 there is not much of side potential. 434 00:21:53.500 --> 00:21:56.700 The reaction should be negative and it's 435 00:21:56.700 --> 00:21:57.400 quite positive. 436 00:21:58.200 --> 00:22:01.500 Difficult to interpret now. Let's back a minute to the 437 00:22:01.500 --> 00:22:02.000 deal. 438 00:22:02.600 --> 00:22:06.200 What is the business rationality of Amazon Amazon created 439 00:22:05.200 --> 00:22:09.300 Amazon care in 2019 Amazon 440 00:22:08.300 --> 00:22:12.400 Pharmacy in 2020. The 441 00:22:11.400 --> 00:22:14.200 Apple watch is something 442 00:22:14.200 --> 00:22:17.400 which is very useful in order to get information about your 443 00:22:17.400 --> 00:22:20.400 health. And then one medical is 444 00:22:20.400 --> 00:22:23.600 in a direct line of this strategic 445 00:22:23.600 --> 00:22:26.500 intent. This Market is quite huge. It's 446 00:22:26.500 --> 00:22:29.600 estimated more than four trillion 447 00:22:29.600 --> 00:22:33.100 dollars per year. What is as huge 448 00:22:32.100 --> 00:22:36.600 at the market is customer dissatisfaction. 449 00:22:35.600 --> 00:22:38.400 So when a business 450 00:22:38.400 --> 00:22:41.600 is very big and the consumers and the customers 451 00:22:41.600 --> 00:22:44.500 are not happy. There's a potential entry. 452 00:22:45.400 --> 00:22:48.800 In the meantime these big players on 453 00:22:48.800 --> 00:22:51.700 the market the Private health insurance such 454 00:22:51.700 --> 00:22:54.400 as humania and so on so forth. We are 455 00:22:54.400 --> 00:22:57.300 making quite a lot of profits some people they say 456 00:22:57.300 --> 00:23:00.400 they make too much profit. So it's a 457 00:23:00.400 --> 00:23:03.800 profitable business. It's a very big business and there 458 00:23:03.800 --> 00:23:06.400 are some potential entry. So you understand that 459 00:23:06.400 --> 00:23:09.800 hamad's own could introduce some disruption in 460 00:23:09.800 --> 00:23:12.200 this market. Of course 461 00:23:12.200 --> 00:23:16.300 one medical is not a great star the company 462 00:23:15.300 --> 00:23:18.400 sales quarter after quarter is 463 00:23:18.400 --> 00:23:21.200 gently moving up then it's up because 464 00:23:21.200 --> 00:23:24.500 of covid then it's stabilizing and then during the 465 00:23:24.500 --> 00:23:27.400 last two quarters the company is showing some girls because of 466 00:23:27.400 --> 00:23:30.400 the acquisition of your but it's not very much 467 00:23:30.400 --> 00:23:33.900 fast growing. What about the metrics of 468 00:23:33.900 --> 00:23:37.100 one medical just before the announcement was 469 00:23:36.100 --> 00:23:39.700 made by Amazon second quarter 470 00:23:39.700 --> 00:23:42.700 2022 quarterly revenues 471 00:23:42.700 --> 00:23:44.900 to 250 million. Why? 472 00:23:45.300 --> 00:23:48.600 Because it's a traditional business plus the acquisition of 473 00:23:48.600 --> 00:23:51.400 Europe. I just did a 474 00:23:51.400 --> 00:23:54.800 bit that so you start with the a bit you add the Precision 475 00:23:54.800 --> 00:23:58.200 amortization you add back stock-based 476 00:23:57.200 --> 00:24:01.100 compensations, you get rid of some non-recuring 477 00:24:00.100 --> 00:24:04.000 items and you get something which is quite negative minus 478 00:24:03.400 --> 00:24:05.600 38 million. 479 00:24:06.700 --> 00:24:09.400 This is Cash which is consumed by the p&l and 480 00:24:09.400 --> 00:24:12.300 cash which is consumed by the cash flow statement is capital 481 00:24:12.300 --> 00:24:15.600 expenditures, which is 34 million. By the 482 00:24:15.600 --> 00:24:18.500 way, if you some these two figures what 483 00:24:18.500 --> 00:24:21.700 you get a cash consumption of 73 million 484 00:24:21.700 --> 00:24:24.600 dollars, then you understand that the convertible born 485 00:24:24.600 --> 00:24:27.100 is you would probably a good idea 486 00:24:27.100 --> 00:24:30.300 last but not least you look at the evolution of the number of 487 00:24:30.300 --> 00:24:33.700 members of membership customers and 488 00:24:33.700 --> 00:24:36.700 you see that it is slow grows and not 489 00:24:36.700 --> 00:24:39.300 that very quick grows. So you understand that 490 00:24:39.300 --> 00:24:42.400 I'm a zone is going to try to use its own talent 491 00:24:42.400 --> 00:24:45.800 to boost driving use and create value out 492 00:24:45.800 --> 00:24:48.400 of that. But what do we know about 493 00:24:48.400 --> 00:24:52.200 Amazon talent for past Acquisitions 494 00:24:51.200 --> 00:24:54.500 and your businesses, which we're created 495 00:24:54.500 --> 00:24:57.600 all we have some information about the cloud. We 496 00:24:57.600 --> 00:25:00.400 have plenty of information about Amazon web 497 00:25:00.400 --> 00:25:04.000 services starting in 2013. 498 00:25:05.100 --> 00:25:08.200 And before we had nothing, but if you look at the evolution of 499 00:25:08.200 --> 00:25:11.400 sales and revenues and operating income of Amazon 500 00:25:11.400 --> 00:25:14.300 web services since a moment, we have 501 00:25:14.300 --> 00:25:17.500 the figures you understand that it is a tremendous success 502 00:25:17.500 --> 00:25:20.800 today after some stabilizations of 503 00:25:20.800 --> 00:25:23.800 the business economics You observe that North 504 00:25:23.800 --> 00:25:27.300 American operations represents almost 60% 505 00:25:26.300 --> 00:25:30.100 of the revenues International operations 506 00:25:29.100 --> 00:25:32.600 less than 30 and Amazon web 507 00:25:32.600 --> 00:25:35.400 services a little bit more than 10 now, when 508 00:25:35.400 --> 00:25:38.400 you move to the contribution not to revenues but to operate 509 00:25:38.400 --> 00:25:41.700 income you understand that the start Amazon is 510 00:25:41.700 --> 00:25:45.400 definitely Amazon web services. This 511 00:25:44.400 --> 00:25:47.800 is why you have to disclose the p&l 512 00:25:47.800 --> 00:25:50.800 and the balance sheet and information in a separate 513 00:25:50.800 --> 00:25:53.900 segment, which was open to Amazon web 514 00:25:53.900 --> 00:25:55.900 services almost 10 years ago. 515 00:25:56.800 --> 00:25:59.500 Now what about the ulcers you remember? 516 00:25:59.500 --> 00:26:02.300 I mentioned Acquisitions 13 billion something 517 00:26:02.300 --> 00:26:05.700 for World Foods twitch Zappos and 518 00:26:05.700 --> 00:26:08.100 so on so forth which information do you get 519 00:26:08.100 --> 00:26:11.800 in the annual report? Nothing they are hardly 520 00:26:11.800 --> 00:26:14.800 mentioned you have no figures about sales 521 00:26:14.800 --> 00:26:17.400 revenues profit cash flow the 522 00:26:17.400 --> 00:26:20.500 value of Goodwills value of brands or whatsoever. 523 00:26:20.500 --> 00:26:23.200 The only financial communication will recently got 524 00:26:23.200 --> 00:26:26.200 about an equity stake of Amazon is about 525 00:26:26.200 --> 00:26:29.200 rivian. Why because the stock price 526 00:26:29.200 --> 00:26:32.400 dramatically dropped and the company 527 00:26:32.400 --> 00:26:35.800 had to show a right off of 11.5 billion 528 00:26:35.800 --> 00:26:38.300 dollars and it's books why because 529 00:26:38.300 --> 00:26:41.500 the stock price went down to 32 dollars. This is 530 00:26:41.500 --> 00:26:44.800 the online information we get of course Amazon is 531 00:26:44.800 --> 00:26:47.500 a significant contributor of review and shares 532 00:26:47.500 --> 00:26:50.400 the company holds about 18% of the 533 00:26:50.400 --> 00:26:53.900 shares one hand and 58 million shares, which 534 00:26:53.900 --> 00:26:56.300 is quite significant when you multiply that by 535 00:26:56.700 --> 00:26:59.800 Two dollars per share Amazon participated to 536 00:26:59.800 --> 00:27:02.400 the equity issues in 2019. First one 537 00:27:02.400 --> 00:27:06.000 in 2019 the second one in 2020. So 538 00:27:05.400 --> 00:27:08.500 the company definitely is a support and 539 00:27:08.500 --> 00:27:12.000 they announced that they are going to buy 100,000 rivian 540 00:27:11.800 --> 00:27:14.100 cars minivans was there 541 00:27:14.100 --> 00:27:17.800 delivery supply chain and Logistics. So this 542 00:27:17.800 --> 00:27:20.600 is quite an involvement, but it's interesting to 543 00:27:20.600 --> 00:27:23.600 look at the price at which rivian issue 544 00:27:23.600 --> 00:27:27.000 the shares before the listing the maximum was 545 00:27:26.100 --> 00:27:29.500 for 2020 and it's about 15 dollars. 546 00:27:30.300 --> 00:27:33.500 So of course today Amazon is showing a write-off 547 00:27:33.500 --> 00:27:37.200 but you know what, they paid maximum 15 548 00:27:36.200 --> 00:27:39.300 and today's worth twice as much 549 00:27:39.300 --> 00:27:43.100 no big deal. What about the other business Avenues? 550 00:27:42.100 --> 00:27:46.300 No information Amazon communication 551 00:27:45.300 --> 00:27:48.600 is extremely Limited. 552 00:27:49.400 --> 00:27:52.100 You show a segment when it's very 553 00:27:52.100 --> 00:27:55.400 big and when it's very profitable it's a case 554 00:27:55.400 --> 00:27:58.500 of Amazon web services before it 555 00:27:58.500 --> 00:28:01.600 becomes big and profitable you hide everything you 556 00:28:01.600 --> 00:28:04.800 show nothing. Is it good or bad management? 557 00:28:06.500 --> 00:28:09.500 I would like to conclude this film with a 558 00:28:09.500 --> 00:28:12.600 provocative question should companies be 559 00:28:12.600 --> 00:28:16.300 transpared. Of course. They also we are transparents and 560 00:28:16.300 --> 00:28:18.300 so forth. Should there be transparent? 561 00:28:19.200 --> 00:28:22.400 Amazon is very transparent when the business is very 562 00:28:22.400 --> 00:28:26.400 profitable and very successful Cloud Amazon 563 00:28:25.400 --> 00:28:28.300 web services, but when 564 00:28:28.300 --> 00:28:31.400 you are building business Avenues and you are making 565 00:28:31.400 --> 00:28:34.100 some risky experiments some are going to 566 00:28:34.100 --> 00:28:37.400 be winners. Some are going to be losers. Is it good 567 00:28:37.400 --> 00:28:40.400 news? Is it good idea? Is it good management to raise 568 00:28:40.400 --> 00:28:43.700 analyst attention If You observe the 569 00:28:43.700 --> 00:28:46.700 behavior of some cell side financial analysis, 570 00:28:46.700 --> 00:28:48.900 they have to demonstrate that's the exist. 571 00:28:50.100 --> 00:28:54.800 So they have a kind of motivation to show some punchline analysis 572 00:28:53.800 --> 00:28:56.400 and criticism about the 573 00:28:56.400 --> 00:28:59.800 company the forget about what Amazon is they 574 00:28:59.800 --> 00:29:02.600 forget about the track record the forget about Amazon web services 575 00:29:02.600 --> 00:29:05.000 and say oh in the pharmacy business, they are not doing 576 00:29:05.200 --> 00:29:08.000 well in the streaming business Etc. So if you 577 00:29:08.100 --> 00:29:11.200 want to open the door to this kind of criticism you are going 578 00:29:11.200 --> 00:29:14.600 to be very transparent and you say oh here we have a problem. 579 00:29:14.600 --> 00:29:17.600 No, don't do it. This is why Amazon 580 00:29:17.600 --> 00:29:20.500 is absolutely not transparent of 581 00:29:20.500 --> 00:29:23.300 all its business experiments. 582 00:29:24.200 --> 00:29:25.100 And that's it. 583 00:29:25.700 --> 00:29:28.900 And you understand that one of the reasons backings is 584 00:29:28.900 --> 00:29:31.400 decision is that it's so difficult 585 00:29:31.400 --> 00:29:34.300 to understand how the market is going to 586 00:29:34.300 --> 00:29:38.200 react to control this kind of Market Behavior 587 00:29:37.200 --> 00:29:40.300 very difficult to interpret very 588 00:29:40.300 --> 00:29:44.100 difficult to forecast. So what do you say nothing? So 589 00:29:43.100 --> 00:29:46.600 you understand that as far as one medical 590 00:29:46.600 --> 00:29:50.500 is concerned but Amazon care Amazon Pharmacy the 591 00:29:49.500 --> 00:29:52.500 watch and so on so forth 592 00:29:52.500 --> 00:29:54.900 all these Health Care applications 593 00:29:55.800 --> 00:29:58.700 The one and unique relevant question is not what 594 00:29:58.700 --> 00:30:01.500 are they doing at the moment, but when will the 595 00:30:01.500 --> 00:30:05.000 market segment be created and disclose any 596 00:30:04.000 --> 00:30:05.500 accounts? 597 00:30:06.200 --> 00:30:09.600 Before that forget about being informed now you 598 00:30:09.600 --> 00:30:13.600 remember that in this film I discussed about information asymmetry. 599 00:30:14.500 --> 00:30:17.400 How do you observe the impact of this information 600 00:30:17.400 --> 00:30:20.700 asymmetry when you send a signal when you communicate 601 00:30:20.700 --> 00:30:23.500 on something abnormal returns? How do 602 00:30:23.500 --> 00:30:26.400 you interpret abnormal returns? You understand 603 00:30:26.400 --> 00:30:29.700 that it's extremely difficult and forecasting is 604 00:30:29.700 --> 00:30:31.200 definitely an issue. 605 00:30:31.900 --> 00:30:34.300 So with information a symmetry and 606 00:30:34.300 --> 00:30:38.300 the difficulty to interpret abnormal returns and Signal Unison, 607 00:30:37.300 --> 00:30:41.200 that investing is really a 608 00:30:40.200 --> 00:30:43.600 tough job together with being a 609 00:30:43.600 --> 00:30:46.100 financial analyst or a company listed on 610 00:30:46.100 --> 00:30:47.000 a capital markets.